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Estimate of Probabilities for Every Seat 2007 House of Representatives Election

1st November 2007

Some intriguing, if inconclusive, evidence this morning of the significant differences in the voting intentions of people in the different Australian States. Newspoll has combined its two most recent polls to give a state by state breakdown and says the sample sizes range from 655 to 679 voters giving a margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. Figures were not given for Tasmania and the two Territories.

The Newspoll figures are given in the table below and alongside them I have had a guess at what the figures would look like if Labor ends up with 53.5% of the two party preferred vote on 24 November rather than the 56% indicated by Newspoll. I chose the 53.5% figure because it appears to be around the level that the market, as measured by the Owl's Election Indicator, is predicting.

% SWINGS BY STATE    
State Newspoll Owl
NT* 8.8 6.3
ACT* 8.8 6.3
Tas* 8.8 6.3
NSW 10.2 7.7
Vic 5.0 5.0
QLD 13.1 8.6
SA 12.4 9.9
WA 4.4 2.0
National 8.8 5.7
2 party preferred 56.0

53.5

INewspoll swing for Tasmania, the ACT and the NT shown as the Australian average.)

If there was a Newspoll type of result Labor would end up with perhaps 102 seats to 48 for the Coalition and Independents. On my 53.5% guesstimate the result would come in around 89 Labor to 61.

The probabilities for individual seats by these two measures are:

Seat Held By State Current Margin Newspoll Swing Predicted Margin ALP Probability Coalition Probability Owl's Guess at Swimg Predicted Margin ALP Probability Coalition Probability
Canberra ALP ACT 10.1 8.8 18.9 1.000 0.000 6.3 16.4 1.000 0.000
Fraser ALP ACT 13.4 8.8 22.2 1.000 0.000 6.3 19.7 1.000 0.000
Banks ALP NSW 3.3 10.2 13.5 0.999 0.001 7.7 11.0 0.993 0.007
Barton ALP NSW 7.6 10.2 17.8 1.000 0.000 7.7 15.3 1.000 0.000
Bennelong Lib NSW -4.0 10.2 6.2 0.916 0.084 7.7 3.7 0.795 0.205
Berowra Lib NSW -13.1 10.2 -2.9 0.260 0.740 7.7 -5.4 0.115 0.885
Blaxland ALP NSW 15.3 10.2 25.5 1.000 0.000 7.7 23.0 1.000 0.000
Bradfield Lib NSW -17.5 10.2 -7.3 0.052 0.948 7.7 -9.8 0.015 0.985
Calare Nat NSW -11.7 10.2 -1.5 0.369 0.631 7.7 -4.0 0.187 0.813
Charlton ALP NSW 8.4 10.2 18.6 1.000 0.000 7.7 16.1 1.000 0.000
Chifley ALP NSW 12.1 10.2 22.3 1.000 0.000 7.7 19.8 1.000 0.000
Cook Lib NSW -13.7 10.2 -3.5 0.218 0.782 7.7 -6.0 0.091 0.909
Cowper Nat NSW -6.6 10.2 3.6 0.788 0.212 7.7 1.1 0.597 0.403
Cunningham ALP NSW 11.7 10.2 21.9 1.000 0.000 7.7 19.4 1.000 0.000
Dobell Lib NSW -4.8 10.2 5.4 0.885 0.115 7.7 2.9 0.740 0.260
Eden-Monaro Lib NSW -3.3 10.2 6.9 0.937 0.063 7.7 4.4 0.836 0.164
Farrer Lib NSW -15.4 10.2 -5.2 0.124 0.876 7.7 -7.7 0.044 0.956
Fowler ALP NSW 13.5 10.2 23.7 1.000 0.000 7.7 21.2 1.000 0.000
Gilmore Lib NSW -9.5 10.2 0.7 0.562 0.438 7.7 -1.8 0.345 0.655
Grayndler ALP NSW 21.3 10.2 31.5 1.000 0.000 7.7 29.0 1.000 0.000
Greenway Lib NSW -11.0 10.2 -0.8 0.429 0.571 7.7 -3.3 0.232 0.768
Hughes Lib NSW -8.8 10.2 1.4 0.622 0.378 7.7 -1.1 0.403 0.597
Hume Lib NSW -12.9 10.2 -2.7 0.274 0.726 7.7 -5.2 0.124 0.876
Hunter ALP NSW 11.2 10.2 21.4 1.000 0.000 7.7 18.9 1.000 0.000
KingsfordSmith ALP NSW 8.6 10.2 18.8 1.000 0.000 7.7 16.3 1.000 0.000
Lindsay Lib NSW -2.9 10.2 7.3 0.948 0.052 7.7 4.8 0.857 0.143
Lowe ALP NSW 3.1 10.2 13.3 0.998 0.002 7.7 10.8 0.992 0.008
Lyne Nat NSW -14.1 10.2 -3.9 0.193 0.807 7.7 -6.4 0.077 0.923
Macarthur Lib NSW -11.1 10.2 -0.9 0.421 0.579 7.7 -3.4 0.225 0.775
Mackellar Lib NSW -15.5 10.2 -5.3 0.119 0.881 7.7 -7.8 0.042 0.958
Macquarie ALP NSW 0.5 10.2 10.7 0.991 0.009 7.7 8.2 0.966 0.034
Mitchell Lib NSW -20.7 10.2 -10.5 0.010 0.990 7.7 -13.0 0.002 0.998
New England Ind NSW -14.2 10.2 -4.0 0.187 0.813 7.7 -6.5 0.074 0.926
Newcastle ALP NSW 8.7 10.2 18.9 1.000 0.000 7.7 16.4 1.000 0.000
North Sydney Lib NSW -10.1 10.2 0.1 0.509 0.491 7.7 -2.4 0.297 0.703
Page Nat NSW -5.5 10.2 4.7 0.852 0.148 7.7 2.2 0.688 0.312
Parkes Nat NSW -18.8 10.2 -8.6 0.028 0.972 7.7 -11.1 0.007 0.993
Parramatta Lib NSW -1.1 10.2 9.1 0.978 0.022 7.7 6.6 0.929 0.071
Paterson Lib NSW -6.8 10.2 3.4 0.775 0.225 7.7 0.9 0.579 0.421
Prospect ALP NSW 6.9 10.2 17.1 1.000 0.000 7.7 14.6 0.999 0.001
Reid ALP NSW 12.0 10.2 22.2 1.000 0.000 7.7 19.7 1.000 0.000
Richmond ALP NSW 1.5 10.2 11.7 0.995 0.005 7.7 9.2 0.980 0.020
Riverina Nat NSW -20.7 10.2 -10.5 0.010 0.990 7.7 -13.0 0.002 0.998
Robertson Lib NSW -6.9 10.2 3.3 0.768 0.232 7.7 0.8 0.571 0.429
Shortland ALP NSW 9.3 10.2 19.5 1.000 0.000 7.7 17.0 1.000 0.000
Sydney ALP NSW 17.3 10.2 27.5 1.000 0.000 7.7 25.0 1.000 0.000
Throsby ALP NSW 13.9 10.2 24.1 1.000 0.000 7.7 21.6 1.000 0.000
Warringah Lib NSW -11.3 10.2 -1.1 0.403 0.597 7.7 -3.6 0.212 0.788
Watson ALP NSW 14.6 10.2 24.8 1.000 0.000 7.7 22.3 1.000 0.000
Wentworth Lib NSW -2.6 10.2 7.6 0.954 0.046 7.7 5.1 0.871 0.129
Werriwa ALP NSW 7.1 10.2 17.3 1.000 0.000 7.7 14.8 0.999 0.001
Lingiari ALP NT 7.7 8.8 16.5 1.000 0.000 6.3 14.0 0.999 0.001
Solomon Lib NT -2.9 8.8 5.9 0.905 0.095 6.3 3.4 0.775 0.225
Blair Lib Qld -5.7 13.1 7.4 0.950 0.050 8.6 2.9 0.740 0.260
Bonner Lib Qld -0.6 13.1 12.5 0.997 0.003 8.6 8.0 0.962 0.038
Bowman Lib Qld -8.9 13.1 4.2 0.825 0.175 8.6 -0.3 0.473 0.527
Brisbane ALP Qld 4.0 13.1 17.1 1.000 0.000 8.6 12.6 0.997 0.003
Capricornia ALP Qld 3.8 13.1 16.9 1.000 0.000 8.6 12.4 0.997 0.003
Dawson Nat Qld -10.2 13.1 2.9 0.740 0.260 8.6 -1.6 0.361 0.639
Dickson Lib Qld -9.1 13.1 4.0 0.813 0.187 8.6 -0.5 0.456 0.544
Fadden Lib Qld -15.3 13.1 -2.2 0.312 0.688 8.6 -6.7 0.068 0.932
Fairfax Lib Qld -13.3 13.1 -0.2 0.482 0.518 8.6 -4.7 0.148 0.852
Fisher Lib Qld -13.0 13.1 0.1 0.509 0.491 8.6 -4.4 0.164 0.836
Flynn Nat Qld -7.8 13.1 5.3 0.881 0.119 8.6 0.8 0.571 0.429
Forde Lib Qld -13.0 13.1 0.1 0.509 0.491 8.6 -4.4 0.164 0.836
Griffith ALP Qld 8.5 13.1 21.6 1.000 0.000 8.6 17.1 1.000 0.000
Groom Lib Qld -19.0 13.1 -5.9 0.095 0.905 8.6 -10.4 0.010 0.990
Herbert Lib Qld -6.1 13.1 7.0 0.940 0.060 8.6 2.5 0.711 0.289
Hinkler Nat Qld -8.8 13.1 4.3 0.830 0.170 8.6 -0.2 0.482 0.518
Kennedy Ind Qld -10.5 13.1 2.6 0.718 0.282 8.6 -1.9 0.336 0.664
Leichhardt Lib Qld -10.3 13.1 2.8 0.733 0.267 8.6 -1.7 0.353 0.647
Lilley ALP Qld 5.4 13.1 18.5 1.000 0.000 8.6 14.0 0.999 0.001
Longman Lib Qld -6.6 13.1 6.5 0.926 0.074 8.6 2.0 0.672 0.328
Maranoa Nat Qld -21.0 13.1 -7.9 0.040 0.960 8.6 -12.4 0.003 0.997
McPherson Lib Qld -14.0 13.1 -0.9 0.421 0.579 8.6 -5.4 0.115 0.885
Moncrieff Lib Qld -19.9 13.1 -6.8 0.065 0.935 8.6 -11.3 0.006 0.994
Moreton Lib Qld -2.8 13.1 10.3 0.989 0.011 8.6 5.8 0.901 0.099
Oxley ALP Qld 7.2 13.1 20.3 1.000 0.000 8.6 15.8 1.000 0.000
Petrie Lib Qld -7.9 13.1 5.2 0.876 0.124 8.6 0.7 0.562 0.438
Rankin ALP Qld 3.0 13.1 16.1 1.000 0.000 8.6 11.6 0.995 0.005
Ryan Lib Qld -10.5 13.1 2.6 0.718 0.282 8.6 -1.9 0.336 0.664
Wide Bay Nat Qld -12.2 13.1 0.9 0.579 0.421 8.6 -3.6 0.212 0.788
Adelaide ALP SA 1.4 12.4 13.8 0.999 0.001 9.0 10.4 0.990 0.010
Barker Lib SA -19.9 12.4 -7.5 0.048 0.952 9.0 -10.9 0.008 0.992
Boothby Lib SA -5.4 12.4 7.0 0.940 0.060 9.0 3.6 0.788 0.212
Grey Lib SA -13.9 12.4 -1.5 0.369 0.631 9.0 -4.9 0.138 0.862
Hindmarsh ALP SA 0.1 12.4 12.5 0.997 0.003 9.0 9.1 0.978 0.022
Kingston Lib SA -0.1 12.4 12.3 0.997 0.003 9.0 8.9 0.976 0.024
Makin Lib SA -1.0 12.4 11.4 0.994 0.006 9.0 8.0 0.962 0.038
Mayo Lib SA -13.6 12.4 -1.2 0.395 0.605 9.0 -4.6 0.153 0.847
PortAdelaide ALP SA 13.0 12.4 25.4 1.000 0.000 9.0 22.0 1.000 0.000
Sturt Lib SA -6.8 12.4 5.6 0.893 0.107 9.0 2.2 0.688 0.312
Wakefield Lib SA -0.7 12.4 11.7 0.995 0.005 9.0 8.3 0.967 0.033
Bass Lib Tas -2.7 8.8 6.1 0.912 0.088 6.3 3.6 0.788 0.212
Braddon Lib Tas -1.2 8.8 7.6 0.954 0.046 6.3 5.1 0.871 0.129
Denison ALP Tas 13.3 8.8 22.1 1.000 0.000 6.3 19.6 1.000 0.000
Franklin ALP Tas 7.6 8.8 16.4 1.000 0.000 6.3 13.9 0.999 0.001
Lyons ALP Tas 3.7 8.8 12.5 0.997 0.003 6.3 10.0 0.987 0.013
Aston Lib Vic -13.2 5.0 -8.2 0.034 0.966 5.0 -8.2 0.034 0.966
Ballarat ALP Vic 2.3 5.0 7.3 0.948 0.052 5.0 7.3 0.948 0.052
Batman ALP Vic 21.4 5.0 26.4 1.000 0.000 5.0 26.4 1.000 0.000
Bendigo ALP Vic 1.0 5.0 6.0 0.909 0.091 5.0 6.0 0.909 0.091
Bruce ALP Vic 3.5 5.0 8.5 0.971 0.029 5.0 8.5 0.971 0.029
Calwell ALP Vic 8.2 5.0 13.2 0.998 0.002 5.0 13.2 0.998 0.002
Casey Lib Vic -11.4 5.0 -6.4 0.077 0.923 5.0 -6.4 0.077 0.923
Chisholm ALP Vic 2.7 5.0 7.7 0.956 0.044 5.0 7.7 0.956 0.044
Corangamite Lib Vic -5.4 5.0 -0.4 0.465 0.535 5.0 -0.4 0.465 0.535
Corio ALP Vic 5.7 5.0 10.7 0.991 0.009 5.0 10.7 0.991 0.009
Deakin Lib Vic -5.0 5.0 0.0 0.500 0.500 5.0 0.0 0.500 0.500
Dunkley Lib Vic -9.4 5.0 -4.4 0.164 0.836 5.0 -4.4 0.164 0.836
Flinders Lib Vic -11.2 5.0 -6.2 0.084 0.916 5.0 -6.2 0.084 0.916
Gellibrand ALP Vic 15.0 5.0 20.0 1.000 0.000 5.0 20.0 1.000 0.000
Gippsland Nat Vic -7.8 5.0 -2.8 0.267 0.733 5.0 -2.8 0.267 0.733
Goldstein Lib Vic -10.1 5.0 -5.1 0.129 0.871 5.0 -5.1 0.129 0.871
Gorton ALP Vic 14.9 5.0 19.9 1.000 0.000 5.0 19.9 1.000 0.000
Higgins Lib Vic -8.8 5.0 -3.8 0.199 0.801 5.0 -3.8 0.199 0.801
Holt ALP Vic 1.6 5.0 6.6 0.929 0.071 5.0 6.6 0.929 0.071
Hotham ALP Vic 7.5 5.0 12.5 0.997 0.003 5.0 12.5 0.997 0.003
Indi Lib Vic -16.3 5.0 -11.3 0.006 0.994 5.0 -11.3 0.006 0.994
Isaacs ALP Vic 1.5 5.0 6.5 0.926 0.074 5.0 6.5 0.926 0.074
Jagajaga ALP Vic 4.5 5.0 9.5 0.983 0.017 5.0 9.5 0.983 0.017
Kooyong Lib Vic -9.6 5.0 -4.6 0.153 0.847 5.0 -4.6 0.153 0.847
La Trobe Lib Vic -5.9 5.0 -0.9 0.421 0.579 5.0 -0.9 0.421 0.579
Lalor ALP Vic 8.8 5.0 13.8 0.999 0.001 5.0 13.8 0.999 0.001
Mallee Nat Vic -24.8 5.0 -19.8 0.000 1.000 5.0 -19.8 0.000 1.000
Maribyrnong ALP Vic 9.5 5.0 14.5 0.999 0.001 5.0 14.5 0.999 0.001
McEwen Lib Vic -6.5 5.0 -1.5 0.369 0.631 5.0 -1.5 0.369 0.631
McMillan Lib Vic -5.0 5.0 0.0 0.500 0.500 5.0 0.0 0.500 0.500
Melbourne ALP Vic 21.2 5.0 26.2 1.000 0.000 5.0 26.2 1.000 0.000
MelbournePorts ALP Vic 3.7 5.0 8.7 0.973 0.027 5.0 8.7 0.973 0.027
Menzies Lib Vic -10.7 5.0 -5.7 0.103 0.897 5.0 -5.7 0.103 0.897
Murray Lib Vic -24.1 5.0 -19.1 0.000 1.000 5.0 -19.1 0.000 1.000
Scullin ALP Vic 14.8 5.0 19.8 1.000 0.000 5.0 19.8 1.000 0.000
Wannon Lib Vic -12.4 5.0 -7.4 0.050 0.950 5.0 -7.4 0.050 0.950
Wills ALP Vic 17.0 5.0 22.0 1.000 0.000 5.0 22.0 1.000 0.000
Brand ALP WA 4.7 4.4 9.1 0.978 0.022 1.9 6.6 0.929 0.071
Canning Lib WA -9.6 4.4 -5.2 0.124 0.876 1.9 -7.7 0.044 0.956
Cowan ALP WA 0.8 4.4 5.2 0.876 0.124 1.9 2.7 0.726 0.274
Curtin Lib WA -14.7 4.4 -10.3 0.011 0.989 1.9 -12.8 0.002 0.998
Forrest Lib WA -10.5 4.4 -6.1 0.088 0.912 1.9 -8.6 0.028 0.972
Fremantle ALP WA 7.8 4.4 12.2 0.997 0.003 1.9 9.7 0.984 0.016
Hasluck Lib WA -1.9 4.4 2.5 0.711 0.289 1.9 0.0 0.500 0.500
Kalgoorlie Lib WA -6.4 4.4 -2.0 0.328 0.672 1.9 -4.5 0.159 0.841
Moore Lib WA -10.9 4.4 -6.5 0.074 0.926 1.9 -9.0 0.023 0.977
O’Connor Lib WA -20.4 4.4 -16.0 0.000 1.000 1.9 -18.5 0.000 1.000
Pearce Lib WA -13.0 4.4 -8.6 0.028 0.972 1.9 -11.1 0.007 0.993
Perth ALP WA 6.8 4.4 11.2 0.994 0.006 1.9 8.7 0.973 0.027
Stirling Lib WA -2.1 4.4 2.3 0.695 0.305 1.9 -0.2 0.482 0.518
Swan ALP WA 0.1 4.4 4.5 0.841 0.159 1.9 2.0 0.672 0.328
Tangney Lib WA -11.8 4.4 -7.4 0.050 0.950 1.9 -9.9 0.014 0.986
 
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