Readers of The Economist may be familiar with the political predictions of the Iowa Electronic Markets. That great British magazine regularly publishes the market on the US Presidential election as an alternative to relying on the opinion polls because history shows it is a better indicator. Without going in to all the detail (you can read that for yourself here) the average error of opinion polls is 1.9% compared to an error of 1.5% for markets.
The Iowa Electronic Markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business as part of its research and teaching mission. Because of the limited range of events it operates on, Richard Farmer in 2004 began using the markets from the British Betfair website and Intrade.com to develop an Election Indicator published on the glug.com.au website for which he used to write.
The Record of the Indicator is shown on this page.You will find Election Indicators on current events here.
| |
|
|
|
| |
 London Lord Mayor
2 May 2008 - Favourite won with Conservative Johnson beating Labor's Livingstone clearly. |
Boris Johnston
Ken Livingstone
All others |
85.8%
13.8%
0.4% |
|
Italian Prime Minister
14 April 2008. Favourite won and Berlusconi again became Prime Minister |
Silvio Berlusconi
Walter Veltroni
Any other |
|
 |
Republican Presidential Candidate
Senator John McCain was a clear favourite to gain the endorsement on the eve of the primary win which secured his victory. |
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Mike Huckabee
Rudolph Giuliani
Condoleeza Rice
Newt Gingrich
Fred Thompson
All others combined |
88.9%
6.8%
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1% |
 |
Spanish General Election - Prime Minister
9 March 2008 - Favourite won Zapatero Prime Minister |
Zapatero
Mariano Rajoy
Any other |
|
|
Texas - Democratic Primary
4 March 2006 - Favourite won. Clinton 50.9% Obama 47.4% |
Obama
Clinton |
|
|
 Ohio - Democratic Primary
4 March 2008 - Narrow favourite Obama beaten. Clinton 55.2% Obama 44.8% |
Obama
Clinton |
|
|
Rhode Island - Democratic Primary
4 March 2008 - Favourite won Clinton 58.4% Obama 40.4% |
Obama
Clinton |
|
|
Vermont - Democratic Primary
4 March 2008 - Favourite won Obama 59.3%, Clinton 38.6% |
Obama
Clinton |
|
 |
Russian Presidential Election
March 2nd, 2008 =- Favourite won Medvedev became President |
Dmitry Medvedev
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Garry Kasparov
Viktor Zubkov
Sergei Ivanov
Gennady Zyuganov
Any other |
89.4%
5.0%
2.5%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
0.5%
|
|
Wisconsin - Democratic Caucus
19 February 2008 - Favourite won Obama 58.1%, Clinton 40.8% |
Obama
Clinton |
82.2%
17.8% |
 |
Hawaii - Democratic Caucus
19 February 2008. Favourite won Obama 76.1%, Clinton 23.7% |
Obama
Clinton |
|
 |
Virginia - Republican Primary
12 February 2008 |
McCain
Huckabee |
85.0%
15.0% |
 |
Virginia - Democratic Primary
12 February 2008 - Favourite Obama won with 64% to CLinton 36% |
Clinton
Obama |
10.2%
89.8% |
|
Maryland - Republican Primary
12 February 2008 |
McCain
Huckabee |
97.4%
2.6% |
 |
Maryland - Democratic Primary
12 February 2008 - Favourite won Obama 61%, Clinton36% |
Clinton
Obama |
10.0%
90.0% |
 |
Maine - Democratic Caucus
10 February 2008 - Favourite won Obama gaining 15 delegates to 9 for Clinton |
Clinton
Obama |
30.7%
69.3% |
 |
Washington State - Republican Caucus
9 February 2008 |
McCain
Huckabee |
94.8%
5.2% |
 |
Washington State - Democratic Caucus
9 February 2008 - Favourite won. Obama 52 delegates to Clinton 26 delegates |
Clinton
Obama |
10.0%
90.0% |
 |
Kansas - Republican Caucus
9 February 2008 |
McCain
Huckabee |
83.8%
16.2% |
 |
Nebraska - Democratic Caucus
9 February 2008 - Favourite won Obama 68% Clinton 32% |
Clinton
Obama |
10.0%
90.0% |
 |
Louisiana - Republican Primary
9 February 2008 |
McCain
Huckabee |
85.0%
15.0% |
 |
Louisiana - Democratic Primary
9 February 2008 - Favourite Obama won with 57% to 37% for Clint0n |
Clinton
Obama |
7.9%
92.1% |
 |
New York - Democrat Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite Clinton won with 67% to Obama 40% |
Clinton
Obama |
90.2%
9.8% |
 |
New York - Republican Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite McCain won with 51% to Romney 28%, Huckabee 11% and Paul 7% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
95.5%
4.0%
0.5% |
|
California - Democrat Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite Clinton won with 52% to Obama 42%. |
Clinton
Obama |
54.0%
46.0% |
 |
California - Republican Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite McCain won with 42% to Romney 34%, Huckabee 12% and Paul 4% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
65.4%
34.5%
0.1% |
 |
Connecticut - Democratic Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite Obama won with 51% to Clinton 47% |
Clinton
Obama |
42.6%
57.4% |
 |
Connecticut - Republican Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite McCain won with 54% to Romney 33%, Huckabee 7% and Paul 4%. |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
93.5%
6.4%
0.1% |
 |
Georgia - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite Obama won with 67% to Clinton on 31%. |
Clinton
Obama |
16.9%
83.1% |
 |
Georgia - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Huckabee won with 34% with the favourite, McCain, on 32%, Romney on 30% and Paul 3%. |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
72.3%
14.5%
13.2% |
 |
Alabama - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Favourite Obama won with 56% to Clinton 42% |
Clinton
Obama |
28.8%
71.2% |
 |
Alabama - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Huckabee won with 41% to McCain 37%, |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
76.0%
0.2%
23.8% |
 |
Illinois - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 33%, Obama 65% |
Clinton
Obama |
1.4%
98.6% |
 |
Illinois - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - avourite McCain won with 47%, Romney 29%, Huckabee 17%, Paul 5%. |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
93.0%
6.9%
0.1% |
 |
Kansas - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 26%, Obama 74% |
Clinton
Obama |
14.9%
85.1% |
 |
Arizona - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 51% Obama 42% |
Clinton
Obama |
58.8%
41.2% |
 |
Arizona - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - McCain 48%, Romney 34%, Huckabee 9%, Paul 4% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
95.3%
4.6%
0.1% |
 |
Arkansas - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 70%, Obama 27% |
Clinton
Obama |
89.0%
11.0% |
 |
Arkansas - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Huckabee 60%, McCain 20%, Romney 14%, Paul 5% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
11.8%
0.1%
88.1% |
 |
Colorado - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Obama 67%, Clinton 32% |
Clinton
Obama |
33.3%
66.7% |
 |
Colorado - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
19.0%
80.9%
0.1% |
 |
Massachusetts - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 56%, Obama 41% |
Clinton
Obama |
72.0%
28.0% |
 |
Massachusetts - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Romney 51%, McCain 41%, Huckabee 4%, Paul 3%
- |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
6.9%
93.0%
0.1% |
 |
Minnesota - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Obama 67%, Clinton 32% |
Clinton
Obama |
55.0%
45.0% |
 |
Minnesota - Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Romney 41%, McCain 22%, Huckabee 20%, Paul 16% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
89.6%
10.3%
0.1% |
 |
Missouri Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Obama 49%, Clinton 48% |
Clinton
Obama |
55.0%
45.0% |
 |
Missouri Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - McCain33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney 29%, Paul 4%. |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
79.1%
11.1%
9.8% |
 |
New Mexico Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 49%, Obama 48% |
Clinton
Obama |
63.0%
37.0% |
 |
Oklahoma - Republican Primary
February 5th 2008 - McCain won with 37%, Huckabee 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 3% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
81.0%
9.5%
9.5% |
 |
Oklahoma - Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton with 55% beat Obama 31% |
Clinton
Obama |
82.0%
18.0% |
 |
Tennessee Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Huckabee with 34% beat McCain 32%, Romney 24% and Paul 6% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
71.4%
14.3%
14.3% |
 |
Tennessee Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Clinton 54% beat Obama 41% |
Clinton
Obama |
92.3%
7.7% |
 |
Utah Republican Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Romney won with 90%, McCain 5%, Paul 3% and Huckabee 2% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
2.5%
97.0%
0.5% |
 |
Utah Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Obama 57%, Clinton 39% |
Clinton
Obama |
50.0%
50.0% |
 |
Delaware Democratic Party Primary
February 5th 2008 - Obama won on 53% to Clinton 43% |
Clinton
Obama |
33.6%
66.4% |
 |
Idaho Democratic Party Caucus
February 5th 2008 - Obama won with 79% to Clinton on 17% |
Clinton
Obama |
20.0%
80.0% |
 |
Montana Republican Party Caucus
February 5th 2008 - Romney won with 38%, Paul 25%, McCain 22% and Huckabee 15% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
24.6%
75.3%
0.1% |
 |
Alaska Democratic Party Caucus
February 5th 2008 - Obama won with 75% to Clinton on 25%. |
Clinton
Obama |
30.4%
69.6% |
 |
Alaska Republican Preference Vote
February 5th 2008 - Romney won with 44% from Huckabee 22%, Paul 17% and McCain 15% |
McCain
Romney
All others |
41.0%
25.0%
35.0% |
 |
North Dakota Republican Caucus
5th February 2008 - Romney won with 36% from McCain 23%, Paul 21% and Huckabee 20% |
McCain
Romney
Huckabee |
33.9%
57.9%
8.3% |
 |
Florida - Democrat Presidential Candidate
29 January 2008 - The favourite, Clinton, won with 49.7% from Obama on 33.0%, Edwards 14.4%. The RCP poll average forecast a Clinton victory by b19.6 percentage points. |
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
All others |
94.4%
5.1%
0.2%
0.3% |
 |
Florida - Republican Presidential Candidate
29 January 2008 - The favourite, McCain, won with 36.0% to Romney on 31.1%, Giulani 14.6%, Huckabee 13.5% and Paul 3.2%. The final RCP average of the pollsters had McCain leading by 0.6% from Romney. |
McCain
Romney
Giulani
Huckabee |
52.6%
43.1%
3.9%
0.4% |
 |
South Carolina - Democrat Primary
26 January 2008 - The favourite, Barack Obama, won with 55.4%, Clinton 26.5% and Edwards 17.6%. |
Obama
Clinton
Edwards |
94.1%
5.4%
0.5% |
 |
Nevada - Democrat Presidential Primary
19 January 2008 - The favourite, Hillary Clinton, won with 50.7%, Obama 45.2% amd Edwards 3.8% |
Clinton
Obama
Edwards |
56.0%
43.0%
1.0% |
 |
South Carolina - Republican Primary
19 January 2008 - The favourite, John McCain, won with 33.2%, Huckabee 29.9%, Romney 15.1%, Thompson 15.7%, Paul 3.7%, Giulani 2.1%. |
McCain
Huckabee
Thompson
Romney
Any other |
50.7%
46.3%
2.8%
0.1%
0.1% |
 |
Michigan - Republican Candidate
15 January 2008 - The favourite, Mitt Romney, won with 39%, McCain 30%, Huckabee 16%, Paul 6%, Thompson 4% and Giulani 3%,. |
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
All others |
30.0%
69.0%
0.9%
0.1% |
 |
New Hampshire - Republican Candidate
9 January 2008 - The favourite, McCain, won |
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
All others |
81.4%
15.2%
0.7%
2.7% |
 |
New Hampshire - Democrat Candidate
9 January 2008 - The favourite was beaten. CLinton won the primary with 39% followed by Obama with 36% and Edwards on 17%. It was one of the great underdog vitories of all time! |
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
All others |
93.3%
6.1%
0.6% |
 |
Iowa - Republican Presidential Caucus
January 2008 - The favourite won - Huckabee from Romney then Fred Thompson and McCain |
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
John McCain
All others |
64%
28%
3%
5% |
 |
Iowa - Democrat Presidential Candidate
January 2008 - The favourite won - Barack Obama from Edwards with Clinton in third position |
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
All others |
57.0%
41.6%
0.9%
0.5% |
 |
The favourite won - Labor victory |
|
|
| November 2007 |
Australian Federal Election |
Coalition |
25% |
| |
|
Labor |
75% |
 |
The favourite beaten - Labor candidate Maxine McKew defeated Coalition Prime Minister John Howard |
|
|
| November 2007 |
Australian seat of Bennelong |
Howard |
59.1% |
| |
|
McKew |
40.9% |
 |
The favourite won |
|
|
| May 2007 |
French Presidential Election |
Nicolas Sarkozy |
77.5% |
| |
|
Segolene Royal |
22.5% |
 |
Favourite won - Labor government returned |
|
|
| March 2007 |
NSW State election |
Labor |
76.9% |
| |
|
LNP Coalition |
23.1% |
 |
Favourite eventually won. After a deadlocked Parliament, Mirek Topolánek finally succeeded in winning a vote of confidence on January 19th, 2007 |
|
|
| October 2006 |
Czech Republic Next Prime Minister |
Mirek Topolánek |
51.8% |
| |
|
Jiri Paroubek |
37.7% |
| |
|
Any other |
10.5% |
 |
Narrow win for Favourite - Reinfeldt became PM |
|
|
| September 2006 |
Swedish Parliamentary Election |
Goran Persson |
38.1% |
| |
|
Fredrik Reinfeldt |
40.5% |
| |
|
Any other |
21.4% |
 |
Favourite won. Labor government returned |
|
|
| September 2006 |
Queensland State Election |
Labor |
91.1% |
| |
|
Liberal & National coalition |
8.9% |
 |
Second favourite Felipe Calderon Hinojosa won in close contest |
|
|
| July 2006 |
Mexico Presidential Election |
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador |
54.9% |
| |
|
Roberto Madrazo Pintado |
7.1% |
| |
|
Felipe Calderon Hinojosa |
37.9% |
| |
|
Anyone else |
0.1% |
 |
Italian Prime Minister
April 2006 - Favourite won. Prodi became PM after close contest. |
Ramano Prodi
Silvio Berlusconi
Anyone else |
|
 |
Labor won a majority of seats and retained government. |
|
|
| March 2006 |
Tasmanian State Election |
Labor to win majority of seats |
50.0% |
| |
|
Labor not to win majority of seats |
50.0% |
 |
Favourite won. Labor Government returned with more than 24 seats. |
|
|
| March 2006 |
South Australian State Election |
Labor to win 24 or more seats
|
92.0% |
| |
|
Labor to win less than 24 seats
|
8.0% |
 |
Favourite won. The election resulted in a minority government led by the Conservative Party. |
|
|
| January 2006 |
Canadian Election |
Conservatives |
81.1% |
| |
|
Liberals |
15.9% |
| |
|
New Democratic |
1.8% |
| |
|
Anyone else |
1.2% |
 |
Favourite won - Tarja Halonen as President of Finland for a second six-year term. |
|
|
| January 2006 |
Finnish Presidential Election |
Tarja Halonen |
67.9% |
| |
|
Sauli Niinisto |
32.1% |
 |
Favourite won. Labor's Helen Clark remained Prime Minister. |
|
|
| September 2005 |
New Zealand Election |
Labour |
53.0% |
| |
|
National |
47.0% |
 |
Favourite won in a very close result. CDU/CSU government. |
|
|
| September 2005 |
German General Election |
CDU/CSU |
93.6% |
| |
|
SDP |
6.2% |
| |
|
Any other |
0.2% |
 |
Second favourite won. London chosen. |
|
|
| July 2005 |
Olympic Host City2012 IOC Ballot |
Paris |
68.7% |
| |
|
London |
23.5% |
| |
|
New York |
4.4% |
| |
|
Madrid |
1.6% |
| |
|
Moscow |
1.3% |
| |
|
Any other |
0.5% |
 |
Favourite won. Labor Government returned. |
|
|
| June 2005 |
Northern Territory Election |
Labor |
86.0% |
| |
|
Country Liberal Party |
14.0% |
 |
Favourite won. A decisive No vote. |
|
|
| May 2005 |
French Referendum on EU Constitution |
YES |
7.0% |
| |
|
NO |
93.0% |
 |
Favourite won. Labour government returned. |
|
|
| May 2005 |
United Kingdom General Election |
Labour |
96.4% |
| |
|
Conservatives |
3.3% |
| |
|
Liberal-Democrats |
0.3% |
 |
Second favourite successful. Cardinal Ratzinger elected Pope. |
|
|
| April 2005 |
Roman Catholic Church Papal Election |
Opening Market |
April 4 |
| |
|
D. Tettamanzi ITA |
24.3% |
| |
|
Francis Arinze NIG |
14.2% |
| |
|
O. Rod. Maradiaga HON |
11.3% |
| |
|
Claudio Hummes BRA |
10.4% |
| |
|
J Ratzinger GER |
6.0% |
| |
|
Closing Market |
Apr. 19 |
| |
|
Francis Arinze NIG |
10.5% |
| |
|
J Ratzinger GER |
10.2% |
 |
Favourite won. Labor Government elected. |
|
|
| February 2005 |
Western Australian State Election |
Labor |
79.5% |
| |
|
Liberal-National Coalition |
20.5% |
 |
Favourite won. Coalition government returned |
|
|
| October 2004 |
Australian Federal Election |
Liberal-National Coalition |
77.8% |
| |
|
Labor |
22.2% |
