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The meaning of Gippsland

Monday, 30 June 2008 - Back in 1983 the new Hawke team also enjoyed a lengthy opinion poll honeymoon but there were swings against it in five of the six polls. As the biggest of those swings was 5.0% to the Coalition we can say that there is nothing in the Gippsland result for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to be happy about. more

Obituaries premature

Monday, 30 June 2008 - One thing the Gippsland by election result proves is that the obituaries for the National Party after the last federal election were premature. The Nationals vote on Saturday was solid and taking the Coalition as a team, there does not seem to have been any major problem caused by the Liberals standing as well. The combined primary vote for the Nationals plus Liberals of 60.5 per cent is the highest since the election of 1996

A by-election coming on

Wednesday, 4 June 2008 - Just in case anyone had forgotten, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Tony Burke reminded us yesterday that there's a by-election coming on. There is going to be, you see, an independent audit (that's right – add another inquiry to the Labor Government's growing list) looking specifically at the treatment of Bass Strait scallop fishers by the former Liberal-National government. And where might those good fisher folk be? Why, down at the Lakes Entrance Fishermen's Cooperative, of course, right slap bang in the middle of the electorate of Gippsland. more

Judging the budget

Thursday, 15 May 2008 - This year we will not need an opinion pollster to tell us what people think of the budget and the performance so far of a new government. The Gippsland by-election on 28 June will give us a real, live measure and Labor must be approaching it with some confidence. more

A little diversion

Tuesday, 22 April 2008 - Holding a plebiscite on whether Australia should move to become a republic and the form of that republican structure if it should, would be a sound move for the Labor Government at the next federal election. more

An Insight in to an Election Campaign: What the Pollster Told the Party

10 September 2007 - Mark Textor is the Liberal Party pollster with his research forming the basis of most of John Howard's campaigns since 1996. Sometimes his findings and recommendations are hinted at. Rarely are even parts of them made public. more

The Complete Form Guide

Wednesday, 18 July 2007 - When a bookmaker has Labor favourite to win the election but his prices on individual seats show that Labor would not win enough seats to do so there should be an opportunity to make a little profit. Hence today's publication of an Australian federal election form guide giving an assessment of the chances of Labor and Non-Labor winning each individual seat. Where Sportingbet is quoting a price for an individual electorate it is shown as well.

I have assumed that the Owl's Election Indicator (based on Betfair) is a correct assessment with the ALP a 54.8% chance of winning. That would result in the ALP winning 77 seats to non-Labor's 73 seats. The opinion polls are currently showing the ALP winning around 94 seats which points to a winning chance of around 90%. more