About the Owl's Election Indicator

The Owl's Election Indicator

About the Owl's Election Indicator

Readers of The Economist may be familiar with the political predictions of the Iowa Electronic Markets. That great British magazine regularly publishes the market on the US Presidential election as an alternative to relying on the opinion polls because history shows it is a better indicator. Without going in to all the detail (you can read that for yourself here ) the average error of opinion polls is 1.9% compared to an error of 1.5% for markets.

The Iowa Electronic Markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business as part of its research and teaching mission. Because of the limited range of events it operates on, Richard Farmer in 2004 began using the markets from the British Betfair website to develop an Election Indicator published on the glug.com.au website for which he also writes.

The Record of the Indicator is shown on this page.

CURRENT ELECTION INDICATIONS

Italian election
9-10 April 2006

Romano Prodi	78.8%
Silvio Berlusconi	19.2%
Anyone else	2.0%

Italy votes on April 9 and 10 to choose a new Prime Minister. The incumbent Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition is an amalgam of parties that range from his own free-market driven Forza Italia Party to the Northern League, with its anti-immigration platform. Romano Prodi's coalition encompasses liberal Catholics, like himself, and Christian Democrats, as well as former Communists and Greens.

HISTORY OF THE OWL'S ELECTION INDICATOR

Tasmanian Election
18 March 2006

Labor to win a majority of seats:	50.0%
Labor not to win a majority of seats:	50.0%

There was so little doubt that Labor would continue as the Government that the Owl Indicator was based on whether it would be a majority or minority government. It ended up at a 50% chance for both. The result was a win for majority government with Labor getting 14 of the 25 seats in the Parliament.

South Australian Election
18 March 2006

Labor to win 24 or more seats:	92%
Labor to win less than 24 seats:	8%

The indicator predicted an easy win for Labor and so it was.

Canadian Election
18 January 2006

Conservatives	81.1%
Liberals	15.9%
New Democratic	1.8%
Any Other	1.2%

The Conservative Party emerged as the largest Party in the Canadian election but failed to win an absolute majority. The Conservative leader Stephen Harper will become Prime Minister in a minority government. In the new Parliament the Conservatives will have 124 seats, the Liberals 103, the New Democrats 29, the Bloc Quebecois 51 and an independent 1.

Finland Presidential Election
19 January 2006

Tarja Halonen	67.9%
Sauli Niinisto	32.1%

Conservative candidate Sauli Niinisto gallantly admitted defeat in Finland's presidential election by kissing the hand of the returned Preisident Tarja Halonen on Sunday night. President Halonen gained over 51% of the vote. Her victory was predicted by the Glug Election Indicator.

New Zealand Election
17 September 2005

Labour	53%
National	47%

The Owl Election Indicator predicted that the New Zealand election would be a close run thing and so it proved. The final figures about the party of the Prime Minister were Labour a 53% chance and the Nationals 47%. Prime Minister Helen Clark was eventually returned at the head of a Coalition which has a narrow majority.

German Election
18 September 2005

CDU/CSU	93.6%
SDP	6.2%

The Indicator had Angela Merkel a short priced favourite (a 93.6% chance of becoming Chancellor) but there were some anxious moments before she finally got the job as head of a grand coalition between her CDU/CSU group and the SDP.

Australian Big Brother 2005
30 August 2005

Tim	47.4%
Vesna or Melanie	40.7%
Logans	11.9%

If there is one thing more stupid than watching Big Brother then it is betting on it! This year's Australian version turned out to be a disaster for the Owl Eviction Indicator. Virtually throughout betting Tim was the firm favourite and with a week to go the Indicator rated him a 47.4% chance, Vesna and Melanie a combined 40.7% with the Logans the outsiders at 11.9%. But in the final washup it was the bland Logans who walked away with the prize money.

Host City Olympic Games
6 July 2005

Paris	68.7%
London	23.5%
New York	4.4%
Madrid	1.6%
Moscow	1.3%
Havana	0.1%
Sao Paulo	0.1%
Rio de Janeiro	0.1%
Istanbul	0.1%
Leipzig	0.1%
Toronto	0.1%

In bringing you the final update on the Olympic Games indicator we warned "Beware of the Underdog." While Paris remained favourite at starting time with an indicated 68.7% chance of being chosen, London had gained considerable late support to be rated a 23.5% chance. We are blaming President Chirac's attack on the food of Finns for the late swing to the English.

Northern Territory Election
18 June 2005

Labor	86%
Country Liberal	14%

The Owl Election Indicator predicted a massacre and so it was. Labor, rated an 86% chance on the eve of polling, destroyed the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory election.

France - EU Referendum
28 May 2005

Yes	7.0%
No	93.0%

The betting markets were behind the opinion polls in picking up the swing towards the No vote in the French referendum. With two weeks to go the Owl Indicator still had a Yes vote as favourite. By polling day the Indicator was pointing strongly towards the No vote victory.

United Kingdom Election
5 May 2005

Labour	96.4%
Conservatives	3.3%
Liberal Democrats	0.3%

The final outcome was Labour winning 356 seats, the Conservatives 197 and the Liberal Democrats 62.

Papal Election
19 April 2005

Cardinal Francis Arinze	10.5%
Cardinal Ratzinger	10.2%

It was the second favourite on The Owl's Papal Election Indicator who came home as Pope Benedict XVI but at least the Indicator pointed in the right direction.

West Australian Election
26 February 2005

Labor	79.5%
Coalition	20.5%

Premier Geoff Gallop's victory was the 15th in a row by Labor at state and territory level. The Liberal-National Coalition still does not govern in any of the six states and two territories.

USA Presidential Election
2 November 2005

Republican	56.6%
Democrat	43.3%

The Owl Indicator pointed consistently for many months towards a victory for George Bush and so it proved.

Australian Federal Election
9 October 2004

Coalition	77.8%
Labour	22.2%

John Howard now has the opportunity to really put his stamp on the future of Australia. Not since the days of Malcolm Fraser has a Government actually been able to govern unhindered by blackmailing minorities.

The Owl's Election Indicator

Romano Prodi

78.8%

Silvio Berlusconi

19.2%

Anyone else

2.0%

Labor to win a majority of seats:

50.0%

Labor not to win a majority of seats:

50.0%

Labor to win 24 or more seats:

92%

Labor to win less than 24 seats:

8%

Conservatives

81.1%

Liberals

15.9%

New Democratic

1.8%

Any Other

1.2%

Tarja Halonen

67.9%

Sauli Niinisto

32.1%

Labour

53%

National

47%

CDU/CSU

93.6%

SDP

6.2%

Tim

47.4%

Vesna or Melanie

40.7%

Logans

11.9%

Paris

68.7%

London

23.5%

New York

4.4%

Madrid

1.6%

Moscow

1.3%

Havana

0.1%

Sao Paulo

0.1%

Rio de Janeiro

0.1%

Istanbul

0.1%

Leipzig

0.1%

Toronto

0.1%

Labor

86%

Country Liberal

14%

Yes

7.0%

No

93.0%

Labour

96.4%

Conservatives

3.3%

Liberal Democrats

0.3%

Cardinal Francis Arinze

10.5%

Cardinal Ratzinger