Wednesday, 18th January, 2006

Given that South Australia has a fixed parliamentary term there is none of the daily "will he, won't he" media speculation that surrounds the build up to most elections in Australia. This state's election date every four years, for both the 47 member House of Assembly (lower house) and 11 of the 22 member Legislative Council (upper house), is fixed by law as the third Saturday of March. Hence there is nothing for a desperate press to speculate about. This year's election date is 18 March and that's that.

Therefore, for all intents and purposes, campaigning is well and truly underway and has been from the moment that the Labor Government declared there would be no meeting of the Parliament in 2006 until new members were elected. Yet because of the summer holidays it has been campaigning at a very low level with barely even an attempt at publicity seeking by Premier Mike Rann since before Christmas. The Opposition Leader has been similarly quiet.

That television reporters have been starved of talking political heads has at least been good for South Australia's poultry farmers. They have been able to revive memories of a pre-Federation country with their pleas for protection from the price competition of wicked egg producers from interstate. It is a measure of how comfortable Labor feels two months out from polling day that requests for state government subsidies were promptly ruled out. And a measure of the Liberal Party's desperation that they have taken such cackling seriously.

For the opinion polls show that this election is a one party race. Already the result is being dubbed a Rannslide, so large is the apparent Labor lead. From leading a minority government dependant on independents and a National Party defector, Premier Rann overwhlemingly is expected by the pundits to emerge with a healthy majority in his own right.

Which is perhaps Labor's only potential problem. Voters have a perverse history of dealing up surprises to over confident politicians. The defeat of the very popular Sally Anne Atkinson as Mayor of Brisbane and of Jeff Kennett as Premier of Victoria are two that come to my mind. If people assume it is safe to register a little protest vote then some of them will actually do so.

In this South Australian case the principal beneficiaries might well be the minor parties. Who knows, perhaps even the Australian Democrats will be able to get their fortunes back on track. Certainly the Greens will be confident of picking up a seat, or even two, in the Legislative Council and the task of sitting No Pokies independent Nick Xenophon will be easier in this environment of an expected easy Labor victory.

As to policies, well, I find it hard to determine a difference between Labor and Liberal. There is no apparent doctrinal debate. Both parties are pro-development and talk tough on law and order while pledging their undying commitment to better health and education services. The choice for the public gets down to making a judgment on managerial ability. Which is just another reason why a significant proportion of voters may decide that a few checks and balances are in order. Do not be surprised by a record non-major-party vote in the Legislative Council and an independent or two in the House of Assembly.

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