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The Owl's Form Guide and Current Prices

Friday, 17th August 2007

In the table below I have set out my own assessment of the chances of Labor and the Coalition in every seat and the prices currently quoted by Sportingbet (shown as Sport) and Portland (Port). In looking for a bet concentrate on those electorates where the bookmakers have a longer price than shown in the Price Needed columns.

  Held  
Current
Predicted
Predicted
Probability
Probability
Price Needed
Price Needed
Sport
Sport
Port
Port
Port
Electorate By State
Margin
Swing
Margin
ALP
LIB
ALP
LIB
ALP
LIB
ALP
LIB
IND
Adelaide ALP SA
1.4
6.3
7.7
0.938
0.062
1.07
16.19
1.25
4.25
1.25
4.00
Aston Lib Vic
-13.2
4.9
-8.3
0.048
0.952
20.64
1.05
12.00
1.01
Ballarat ALP Vic
2.3
4.9
7.2
0.925
0.075
1.08
13.35
1.20
4.00
1.24
3.75
Banks ALP NSW
3.3
8.1
11.4
0.989
0.011
1.01
88.47
1.11
5.75
Barker Lib SA
-19.9
6.3
-13.6
0.003
0.997
306.36
1.00
21.00
1.00
Barton ALP NSW
7.6
8.1
15.7
0.999
0.001
1.03
12.00
Bass Lib Tas
-2.7
5.7
3.0
0.726
0.274
1.38
3.65
1.40
2.50
1.55
2.35
Batman ALP Vic
21.4
4.9
26.3
1.000
0.000
1.00
13.00
Bendigo ALP Vic
1.0
4.9
5.9
0.881
0.119
1.14
8.40
1.10
5.00
1.36
2.85
Bennelong Lib NSW
-4.0
8.1
4.1
0.794
0.206
1.26
4.85
2.35
1.50
2.35
1.50
Berowra Lib NSW
-13.1
8.1
-5.0
0.159
0.841
6.30
1.19
14.00
1.01
Blair Lib Qld
-5.7
7.0
1.3
0.603
0.397
1.66
2.52
1.40
2.70
1.80
1.90
Blaxland ALP NSW
15.3
8.1
23.4
1.000
0.000
1.00
16.00
Bonner Lib Qld
-0.6
7.0
6.4
0.900
0.100
1.11
9.97
1.10
5.00
1.27
3.40
Boothby Lib SA
-5.4
6.3
0.9
0.571
0.429
1.75
2.33
3.50
1.30
3.50
1.26
Bowman Lib Qld
-8.9
7.0
-1.9
0.352
0.648
2.84
1.54
3.00
1.40
2.15
1.60
Braddon Lib Tas
-1.2
5.7
4.5
0.816
0.184
1.23
5.43
1.40
2.50
1.54
2.30
Bradfield Lib NSW
-17.5
8.1
-9.4
0.030
0.970
33.27
1.03
19.00
1.00
Brand ALP WA
4.7
3.3
8.0
0.945
0.055
1.06
18.25
1.20
4.00
1.22
3.80
Brisbane ALP Qld
4.0
7.0
11.0
0.986
0.014
1.01
71.92
1.12
5.25
Bruce ALP Vic
3.5
4.9
8.4
0.954
0.046
1.05
21.52
1.10
5.80
Calare Nat NSW
-11.7
8.1
-3.6
0.236
0.764
4.24
1.31
11.00
1.25
Calwell ALP Vic
8.2
4.9
13.1
0.996
0.004
1.01
12.00
Canberra ALP ACT
10.1
5.7
15.8
0.999
0.001
1.00
13.00
Canning Lib WA
-9.6
3.3
-6.3
0.104
0.896
9.63
1.12
3.75
1.22
Capricornia ALP Qld
3.8
7.0
10.8
0.985
0.015
1.02
64.99
1.05
8.00
Casey Lib Vic
-11.4
4.9
-6.5
0.097
0.903
10.33
1.11
11.00
1.02
Charlton ALP NSW
8.4
8.1
16.5
1.000
0.000
1.01
12.00
Chifley ALP NSW
12.1
8.1
20.2
1.000
0.000
1.00
14.00
Chisholm ALP Vic
2.7
4.9
7.6
0.936
0.064
1.07
15.56
1.16
4.25
1.16
4.65
Cook Lib NSW
-13.7
8.1
-5.6
0.131
0.869
7.61
1.15
11.00
1.02
Corangamite Lib Vic
-5.4
4.9
-0.5
0.460
0.540
2.17
1.85
3.40
1.35
4.00
1.20
Corio ALP Vic
5.7
4.9
10.6
0.983
0.017
1.02
58.81
1.02
11.00
Cowan ALP WA
0.8
3.3
4.1
0.794
0.206
1.26
4.85
1.50
2.50
1.70
2.08
Cowper Nat NSW
-6.6
8.1
1.5
0.618
0.382
1.62
2.62
4.00
1.18
Cunningham ALP NSW
11.7
8.1
19.8
1.000
0.000
1.01
29.00
Curtin Lib WA
-14.7
3.3
-11.4
0.011
0.989
88.47
1.01
13.00
1.00
Dawson Nat Qld
-10.2
7.0
-3.2
0.261
0.739
3.83
1.35
11.00
1.02
Deakin Lib Vic
-5.0
4.9
-0.1
0.492
0.508
2.03
1.97
2.05
1.70
Denison ALP Tas
13.3
5.7
19.0
1.000
0.000
1.01
14.00
Dickson Lib Qld
-9.1
7.0
-2.1
0.337
0.663
2.97
1.51
3.50
1.30
3.20
1.32
Dobell Lib NSW
-4.8
8.1
3.3
0.745
0.255
1.34
3.93
1.70
2.10
1.60
2.15
Dunkley Lib Vic
-9.4
4.9
-4.5
0.184
0.816
5.43
1.23
6.75
1.08
Eden-Monaro Lib NSW
-3.3
8.1
4.8
0.831
0.169
1.20
5.93
1.50
2.40
1.55
2.25
Fadden Lib Qld
-15.3
7.0
-8.3
0.048
0.952
20.64
1.05
13.00
1.00
Fairfax Lib Qld
-13.3
7.0
-6.3
0.104
0.896
9.63
1.12
8.00
1.06
Farrer Lib NSW
-15.4
8.1
-7.3
0.072
0.928
13.86
1.08
17.00
1.00
Fisher Lib Qld
-13.0
7.0
-6.0
0.115
0.885
8.69
1.13
9.00
1.04
Flinders Lib Vic
-11.2
4.9
-6.3
0.104
0.896
9.63
1.12
9.00
1.04
Flynn Nat Qld
-7.8
7.0
-0.8
0.436
0.564
2.29
1.77
2.90
1.35
2.45
1.50
Forde Lib Qld
-13.0
7.0
-6.0
0.115
0.885
8.69
1.13
9.00
1.04
Forrest Lib WA
-10.5
3.3
-7.2
0.075
0.925
13.35
1.08
15.00
1.02
Fowler ALP NSW
13.5
8.1
21.6
1.000
0.000
1.00
17.00
Franklin ALP Tas
7.6
5.7
13.3
0.996
0.004
1.12
5.50
Fraser ALP ACT
13.4
5.7
19.1
1.000
0.000
1.00
15.00
Fremantle ALP WA
7.8
3.3
11.1
0.987
0.013
1.01
75.70
1.02
11.00
Gellibrand ALP Vic
15.0
4.9
19.9
1.000
0.000
1.00
19.00
Gilmore Lib NSW
-9.5
8.1
-1.4
0.390
0.610
2.57
1.64
7.00
1.07
Gippsland Nat Vic
-7.8
4.9
-2.9
0.281
0.719
3.56
1.39
8.00
1.05
Goldstein Lib Vic
-10.1
4.9
-5.2
0.149
0.851
6.70
1.18
9.00
1.04
Gorton ALP Vic
14.9
4.9
19.8
1.000
0.000
1.00
19.00
Grayndler ALP NSW
21.3
8.1
29.4
1.000
0.000
1.00
34.00
Greenway Lib NSW
-11.0
8.1
-2.9
0.281
0.719
3.56
1.39
2.80
1.36
Grey Lib SA
-13.9
6.3
-7.6
0.064
0.936
15.56
1.07
12.00
1.01
Griffith ALP Qld
8.5
7.0
15.5
0.999
0.001
1.01
12.00
Groom Lib Qld
-19.0
7.0
-12.0
0.008
0.992
121.99
1.01
13.00
1.00
Hasluck Lib WA
-1.9
3.3
1.4
0.610
0.390
1.64
2.57
1.57
2.30
1.74
1.95
Herbert Lib Qld
-6.1
7.0
0.9
0.571
0.429
1.75
2.33
2.15
1.65
2.08
1.70
Higgins Lib Vic
-8.8
4.9
-3.9
0.218
0.782
4.59
1.28
5.00
1.12
Hindmarsh ALP SA
0.1
6.3
6.4
0.900
0.100
1.11
9.97
1.10
5.00
1.28
3.40
Hinkler Nat Qld
-8.8
7.0
-1.8
0.359
0.641
2.78
1.56
3.25
1.33
2.20
1.62
Holt ALP Vic
1.6
4.9
6.5
0.903
0.097
1.11
10.33
1.20
4.00
1.28
3.38
Hotham ALP Vic
7.5
4.9
12.4
0.993
0.007
1.01
152.23
1.01
12.00
Hughes Lib NSW
-8.8
8.1
-0.7
0.444
0.556
2.25
1.80
6.50
1.07
Hume Lib NSW
-12.9
8.1
-4.8
0.169
0.831
5.93
1.20
12.00
1.01
Hunter ALP NSW
11.2
8.1
19.3
1.000
0.000
1.00
13.00
Indi Lib Vic
-16.3
4.9
-11.4
0.011
0.989
88.47
1.01
13.00
1.00
Isaacs ALP Vic
1.5
4.9
6.4
0.900
0.100
1.11
9.97
1.40
2.80
1.45
2.60
Jagajaga ALP Vic
4.5
4.9
9.4
0.970
0.030
1.03
33.27
1.03
10.00
Kalgoorlie Lib WA
-6.4
3.3
-3.1
0.268
0.732
3.74
1.37
2.70
1.40
Kennedy Ind Qld
-10.5
7.0
-3.5
0.242
0.758
4.13
1.32
19.00
19.00
1
KingsfordSmith ALP NSW
8.6
8.1
16.7
1.000
0.000
1.01
12.00
Kingston Lib SA
-0.1
6.3
6.2
0.893
0.107
1.12
9.30
1.10
4.50
1.24
3.55
Kooyong Lib Vic
-9.6
4.9
-4.7
0.174
0.826
5.76
1.21
11.00
1.00
La Trobe Lib Vic
-5.9
4.9
-1.0
0.421
0.579
2.38
1.73
2.50
1.45
Lalor ALP Vic
8.8
4.9
13.7
0.997
0.003
1.00
325.53
1.01
12.00
Leichhardt Lib Qld
-10.3
7.0
-3.3
0.255
0.745
3.93
1.34
4.00
1.20
Lilley ALP Qld
5.4
7.0
12.4
0.993
0.007
1.01
152.23
1.06
7.50
Lindsay Lib NSW
-2.9
8.1
5.2
0.851
0.149
1.18
6.70
1.40
2.50
1.36
2.80
Lingiari ALP NT
7.7
5.7
13.4
0.996
0.004
1.00
271.66
1.03
10.00
Longman Lib Qld
-6.6
7.0
0.4
0.532
0.468
1.88
2.14
3.50
1.40
3.40
1.27
Lowe ALP NSW
3.1
8.1
11.2
0.987
0.013
1.01
79.71
1.10
4.50
1.15
4.80
Lyne Nat NSW
-14.1
8.1
-6.0
0.115
0.885
8.69
1.13
13.00
1.00
Lyons ALP Tas
3.7
5.7
9.4
0.970
0.030
1.03
33.27
1.15
5.00
Macarthur Lib NSW
-11.1
8.1
-3.0
0.274
0.726
3.65
1.38
7.00
1.08
Mackellar Lib NSW
-15.5
8.1
-7.4
0.069
0.931
14.40
1.07
13.00
1.00
Macquarie ALP NSW
0.5
8.1
8.6
0.957
0.043
1.04
23.41
1.35
3.00
1.36
2.85
Makin Lib SA
-1.0
6.3
5.3
0.855
0.145
1.17
6.92
1.40
2.40
1.35
2.92
Mallee Nat Vic
-24.8
4.9
-19.9
0.000
1.000
15.00
1.00
Maranoa Nat Qld
-21.0
7.0
-14.0
0.003
0.997
16.00
1.00
Maribyrnong ALP Vic
9.5
4.9
14.4
0.998
0.002
1.00
13.00
Mayo Lib SA
-13.6
6.3
-7.3
0.072
0.928
13.86
1.08
13.00
1.01
McEwen Lib Vic
-6.5
4.9
-1.6
0.374
0.626
2.67
1.60
3.00
1.35
McMillan Lib Vic
-5.0
4.9
-0.1
0.492
0.508
2.03
1.97
2.45
1.50
McPherson Lib Qld
-14.0
7.0
-7.0
0.081
0.919
12.38
1.09
12.00
1.01
Melbourne ALP Vic
21.2
4.9
26.1
1.000
0.000
1.00
21.00
MelbournePorts ALP Vic
3.7
4.9
8.6
0.957
0.043
1.04
23.41
1.08
9.00
Menzies Lib Vic
-10.7
4.9
-5.8
0.123
0.877
8.13
1.14
13.00
1.01
Mitchell Lib NSW
-20.7
8.1
-12.6
0.006
0.994
170.42
1.01
17.00
1.00
Moncrieff Lib Qld
-19.9
7.0
-12.9
0.005
0.995
202.43
1.00
15.00
1.00
Moore Lib WA
-10.9
3.3
-7.6
0.064
0.936
15.56
1.07
10.00
1.03
Moreton Lib Qld
-2.8
7.0
4.2
0.800
0.200
1.25
4.99
1.35
2.50
1.36
2.85
Murray Lib Vic
-24.1
4.9
-19.2
0.000
1.000
15.00
1.00
New England Ind NSW
-14.2
8.1
-6.1
0.111
0.889
8.99
1.13
31.00
13.00
1
Newcastle ALP NSW
8.7
8.1
16.8
1.000
0.000
1.00
13.00
North Sydney Lib NSW
-10.1
8.1
-2.0
0.345
0.655
2.90
1.53
11.00
1.02
O’Connor Lib WA
-20.4
3.3
-17.1
0.000
1.000
15.00
1.00
Oxley ALP Qld
7.2
7.0
14.2
0.998
0.002
1.02
12.00
Page Nat NSW
-5.5
8.1
2.6
0.698
0.302
1.43
3.32
2.00
1.70
Parkes Nat NSW
-18.8
8.1
-10.7
0.016
0.984
61.81
1.02
17.00
1.05
Parramatta Lib NSW
-1.1
8.1
7.0
0.919
0.081
1.09
12.38
1.24
3.70
1.32
3.08
Paterson Lib NSW
-6.8
8.1
1.3
0.603
0.397
1.66
2.52
2.85
1.40
2.75
1.41
Pearce Lib WA
-13.0
3.3
-9.7
0.026
0.974
38.18
1.03
10.00
1.03
Perth ALP WA
6.8
3.3
10.1
0.978
0.022
1.02
46.10
1.01
12.00
Petrie Lib Qld
-7.9
7.0
-0.9
0.429
0.571
2.33
1.75
3.00
1.50
2.70
1.42
PortAdelaide ALP SA
13.0
6.3
19.3
1.000
0.000
1.00
15.00
Prospect ALP NSW
6.9
8.1
15.0
0.999
0.001
1.02
11.00
Rankin ALP Qld
3.0
7.0
10.0
0.977
0.023
1.02
43.96
1.15
4.80
Reid ALP NSW
12.0
8.1
20.1
1.000
0.000
1.00
13.00
Richmond ALP NSW
1.5
8.1
9.6
0.973
0.027
1.03
36.46
1.10
4.50
1.25
3.40
Riverina Nat NSW
-20.7
8.1
-12.6
0.006
0.994
170.42
1.01
13.00
1.00
Robertson Lib NSW
-6.9
8.1
1.2
0.595
0.405
1.68
2.47
2.80
1.40
Ryan Lib Qld
-10.5
7.0
-3.5
0.242
0.758
4.13
1.32
5.50
1.12
Scullin ALP Vic
14.8
4.9
19.7
1.000
0.000
1.00
15.00
Shortland ALP NSW
9.3
8.1
17.4
1.000
0.000
1.00
13.00
Solomon Lib NT
-2.9
5.7
2.8
0.712
0.288
1.40
3.48
1.50
2.40
1.77
1.95
Stirling Lib WA
-2.1
3.3
1.2
0.595
0.405
1.68
2.47
1.70
2.10
1.87
1.82
Sturt Lib SA
-6.8
6.3
-0.5
0.460
0.540
2.17
1.85
3.00
1.40
3.00
1.32
Swan ALP WA
0.1
3.3
3.4
0.752
0.248
1.33
4.03
1.50
2.40
1.87
1.82
Sydney ALP NSW
17.3
8.1
25.4
1.000
0.000
1.02
29.00
Tangney Lib WA
-11.8
3.3
-8.5
0.045
0.955
22.44
1.05
12.00
1.02
Throsby ALP NSW
13.9
8.1
22.0
1.000
0.000
1.00
19.00
Wakefield Lib SA
-0.7
6.3
5.6
0.869
0.131
1.15
7.61
1.40
2.40
1.36
2.80
Wannon Lib Vic
-12.4
4.9
-7.5
0.067
0.933
14.97
1.07
11.00
1.01
Warringah Lib NSW
-11.3
8.1
-3.2
0.261
0.739
3.83
1.35
11.00
1.02
Watson ALP NSW
14.6
8.1
22.7
1.000
0.000
1.00
15.00
Wentworth Lib NSW
-2.6
8.1
5.5
0.864
0.136
1.16
7.37
2.80
1.33
2.70
1.38
Werriwa ALP NSW
7.1
8.1
15.2
0.999
0.001
1.02
11.00
Wide Bay Nat Qld
-12.2
7.0
-5.2
0.149
0.851
6.70
1.18
11.00
1.02
Wills ALP Vic
17.0
4.9
21.9
1.000
0.000
1.00
15.00
 
     
87.602
62.398

 

 

 
© Richard Farmer 2007