Likelihood of Iran Being Bombed by US

Bombing Iran? Call it a 27% Chance

Monday, 10th April, 2006

A story by the journalist Seymour M. Hersh published in the current issue of The New Yorker, asserts that the Pentagon presented the White House with an option of attacking Iran's underground nuclear facilities and says that it has not ruled out using tactical nuclear weapons. Well if you believe that Mr Hersh has his facts right and that President George Bush will bomb Iran in the next year, hop on to the internet and get set at Intrade.com. This betting exchange which operates on political, economic and current affairs, puts the chance of the USA and/or Israel launching "an overt air strike against Iran" at 26.8%. That is another way of saying that for an outlay of $26.80 you can collect $100 if the bombing take place - giving a potential profit of $73.20.

Not that Mr Hersh's story has so far been hugely persuasive. Yesterday the Intrade probability of an "overt air strike" was 25.9% and that is down from a high point of 42.9% back in December last year. The increase of less than one percentage point suggests that those who bet on matters like this are doubtful that an attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear research facilities is imminent.

That view accords with that of Bush administration officials who the Washington Post reports as playing down prospects for military action, calling the reports "ill-informed," but stopping short of an outright denial.

Likelihood of US/Israel Bombing Iran Before
31 March 2007
Prices quoted at Intrade

For an updated market on the likelihood of Iran bieng bombed see our betting markets section.

Seymour Hersh wrote in The New Yorker magazine that Washington was stepping up planning for a possible bombing campaign against Iran, despite publicly pushing for a negotiated settlement.