Wednesday, 12th April, 2006

The opinion pollsters have a let out clause in Italy. There is a two week black out before election day during which no polls can be published. If and when you are wrong you can blame the late swing. Which is just as well. The last predictions of the major polling companies ranged from a 2.5% to 5% victory for Romano Prodi's coalition. On Monday Prodi snuck home from Silvio Berlusconi's team with a lead of just 0.1%.

What I call the underdog factor - and the pollsters declare was people making up their minds at the last moment - was at work. Once again the markets picked up the possibility of a close finish better than the polls.

The Owl's final Election Indicator, based on the Betfair betting exchange, had Prodi as a 78.8% chance of winning. That translates in to a predicted difference between the two sides in votes of 1.2 per centage points - clearly better than the lowest pollster prediction of 2.5 points and much, much better than the five points.

For Romano Prodi a win is a win