Friday, 17th February, 2006

The trend of the opinion polls has been consistent in the months leading up to the SA election. Newspoll, which only samples a small number of people in the state and thus accumulates results over three months or so, last had Labor with a 46% share of the vote. The Advertiser poll has had Labor at a 48% share, after adjusting for the undecided and don't knows, in both January and February. If the actual voting turns out anything like these figures then Labor is in for a big win. Their predicted vote is up about 12 percentage points on the last actual election while a predicted 36% for the Liberals is down four percentage points.

It is the very size of the expected Labor win that - perversely - is the biggest factor going against it actually happening. With the return of a well liked Premier seemingly assured, the conditions are perfect for people to experiment a little and give their vote to an independent or third party candidate.