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An Amazing Leadership Contest

Tuesday, 11th July, 2006

It is difficult to keep up with developments in this amazing leadership tussle when the contestants are locked in the Cabinet room. Hence this even handed advice to Messrs Howard and Costello which gives an indication of the issues as I see them.

Advice to Peter Costello

Giving advice to Peter Costello is clearly a soul destroying task. His words and actions this week are those of a man acting on a whim of the moment rather than being part of a considered strategy. As his Irish ancestors might say, if I wanted to get to the Prime Ministership I would not be starting from here. Yet describing John Howard as a welshing liar is where the Treasurer is at and he now must make the best of it.

On his way in to this morning's Cabinet meeting Peter Costello invoked the childhood advice of his parents that if you have done nothing wrong there is no harm in telling the truth. Keep plugging away with these suggestions that Howard is an untrustworthy liar while you are an honourable and honest man. Damaging Honest John's reputation is now a pre-requisite to getting rid of him.

Most of your Coalition colleagues are angry with you this morning because they think their seats are safer with Howard as leader. Once they fear he is a loser, the anger will be re-directed. That change will not happen overnight but it is amazing what a succession of bad opinion polls can generate. You can rely on Labor to take up the “Howard is a liar” chant so you can afford to be careful with your own choice of words. Contact the St James Ethics Centre about giving a learned speech on the importance of morality in public life.

First, though, you must decide whether to stay as Treasurer or go to the backbench voluntarily if Howard is too gutless to make the decision by sacking you immediately. Give the weak little weasel a few days to squirm over it and use the time to keep pushing your anti-states campaign at the COAG meeting. That conference is a great opportunity to remind your colleagues that you are the government's real reformer even if Howard is the one who hogs the credit. Manufacture circumstances at COAG where it is clear the differences between the two of you are not just personal but differences of substance about reforming the way this country is governed. If Howard still will not sack you he will begin to look weak.

All the time keep referring to this dispute not being something for Howard and Costello to settle. Agree with the welsher that leadership is a matter for the Liberal Party. Then start giving the Party reasons to start thinking about this being a time for a change – a time for regeneration, a time for a new generation. Get the parliamentary library to turn up the arguments that led the United States to limit Presidents to two terms to stop the Franklin Rooseveldt dynasty. Give them to Glen Milne so he can write one of his insightful pieces about the dangers to a country of having the same leader for too long.

If the squib still has not acted within a fortnight, go to him and say you think it is in the best interests of the Party for you to move to the backbench for as long as he remains Prime Minister. Sit there and enjoy the freedom of talking about the kind of Australia you would like to see and hope the polls move strongly towards Labor.

Advice to John Howard

John Howard should now realise he cannot get away forever with not answering questions about how long he intends to remain in politics. The time for a decision is fast approaching.

For him to lead the Coalition at another election is clearly what the colleagues want. They follow the adage that the first duty of a politician is to be elected and the second duty is to be re-elected. Howard is the proven winner judged most likely to allow duty to flower.

But for that to happen on the next polling day voters must be sure they are actually voting for John Howard – that he is capable of being in the job for the full three years of another term. A suggestion that they are voting for a lame duck Prime Minister who quickly will hand over to someone else would be a serious negative.

The reactions of Howard this week suggest he is of a mind to run again. That being so he must repeat the effort of last time and convince the electorate that he is quite capable of going on for many years yet. The morning track suited appearances have to continue. They are a daily indication of a man whose ageing is no impediment. Perhaps Glen Milne should be given a dossier on world leaders who continued to rule successfully well in to their seventies. If Howard stays Glen will be looking for a way of replacing Peter Costello as an informant of influence.

Certainly any statement announcing that there will be no immediate retirement should stress that the Prime Ministerial health is excellent, the mind is active and the enthusiasm for making Australia a better place remains. The mantra of remaining for as long as the party wants him and it is in the best interests of the party to do so should have the addition that there is the hope that both conditions will remain for many, many years to come.

A good adviser should not be a sycophant who tells the boss what he wants to hear. There is a duty on this occasion to say that there are real risks in staying on. The greatest is that he might lose the next election. Industrial relations changes have given Labor an issue that is potentially a substantial vote winner. The opinion polls show that. Only Howard himself can make the judgment about whether the risk of ending a career in defeat is worth taking.