Monday, 13th March, 2006

The six most recent opinion polls published in Italy since Feb. 21 show prime minister Silvio Berlusconi trailing his opponent, the former Prime Minister Romano Prodi, by 3.5 to 4.9 percentage points. The market at British betting exchange Betfair assesses the chances as Berlusconi 28% to Prodi's 69% (with the balance being any other candidate). Rather clear evidence that Berlusconi is on the way out.

No so, according to the press. Journalists are reluctant to write the incumbent off.

The recent report on the Bloomberg web site is typical. "In his five years in power, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has been tried for corruption, failed to deliver promised tax cuts and presided over an economy that didn't grow for two years," said the Bloomberg report. "With all that, Berlusconi's coalition trails the opposition bloc led by former Prime Minister Romano Prodi by less than 5 percentage points in opinion polls -- and he still has four weeks to make up the difference before the April 9 elections. The prime minister's resilience in the face of controversies that might have already sunk another politician owes much to his status as Italy's richest man, his influence over his own and state-controlled broadcasters, and divisions within Prodi's coalition. It also, analysts say, reflects the prime minister's political skills and the mood of the Italian electorate."

Elisabeth Rosenthal writing in the International Herald Tribune says that "Prodi, a former head of the European Commission and former prime minister, would probably have to make a huge political mistake - a "Calderoli," pollsters here call it - to lose his lead in the polls, said Simona Beltrame, chief executive of TNS-Global, a market research firm. But with Berlusconi's campaign skills and big budget, no one is ready to call the race yet."

Berlusconi's center-right coalition is an amalgam of parties that range from his own free-market driven Forza Italia Party to the Northern League, with its anti-immigration platform. In an effort to gain a few more votes that could be decisive in a tight race, Berlusconi recently courted and joined forces with a small group of far-right parties run by Alessandra Mussolini, the dictator's granddaughter, known for their extreme nationalism.

Prodi's coalition is perhaps, wrote Rosenthal ,even more divergent, encompassing liberal Catholics, like himself, and Christian Democrats, as well as former Communists and Greens.

Silvio Berlusconi trails in the polls and is the outsider in the betting but the journalists are not writing him off in the election on 9 April.

The free encylcopaedia Wikipedia gives some examples of the Berlusconi sense of humour.

On April 4 2000, from his electoral ship, he tells a controversial joke about AIDS.

A man with AIDS meets his doctor and asks him: "Doctor, what can I do for my illness?". The doctor answers: "Have a mud bath". "But doc, will that really do me any good?" "Not really, but you'll get used to being buried".

On July 2, one day after taking over the rotating presidency of the EU Council of Ministers, he was heavily criticised by the German Member of the European Parliament Martin Schulz (from the SPD) because of his domestic policy. Berlusconi replied:

"Mister Schulz, I know a movie-producer in Italy that is making a movie about Nazi concentration camps. I will suggest you to play the role of Kapo (concentration-camp inmate appointed as supervisor). You are perfect!"