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Don't Write Natasha Off |
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Thursday, 23rd March, 2006 The dismal performance of the Democrats in the South Australian election has some people writing the Party's obituary. If they can only get 1.7% of the Legislative Council vote in the state which is their strongest, the argument goes, there's no hope of them getting a quota at the next Senate poll. There is no doubting that the Democrat decline in South Australia has been dramatic. At the Council election of 1997 the Democrat share was 16.9%. In 2002 it fell to 7.3% before Saturday's further decline to 1.7%. Yet things are not necessarily as bleak as they might appear at a cursory glance. The table below shows that, while the Democrats might be in decline, so too are the Liberals. Share of Votes in SA Legislative Council Elections
Last Saturday Nick Xenophon was the major beneficiary from the Liberal Party's deserters. With the Labor vote going up it was not a surprise that the Greens vote picked up only slightly. At a Senate poll there will be no Nick Xenophon so the disenchanted will have to look elsewhere. And who better than Natasha Stott Despoja who is every bit as well known in South Australia as the No Pokies independent. She got a great run in the local media with her comments yesterday that she was thinking about not standing again. Will she, won't she, will prove an irresistible story in South Australian for months. Also working in Senator Stott Despoja's favour is the expectation that the solid vote at the last Senate poll for Liberal and Labor will prove to have been an anomaly. The 17% of the vote that independents and all the minor parties - Democrats, Greens, Family First and others - gained in 2004 was far lower than at any other upper house election in the last decade. Democrat Performance in Upper House Elections in SA
The biggest problem that the Democrats have next time is that their other Senators do not have the public recognition in the rest of Australia that Stott Despoja has in South Australia. Her personality may prove sufficient to overcome the decline in her party. Others will not be so fortunate. |
Senator Natasha Stott Despoja's personality will make her a winner. |
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