7
Jun

A perverse bit of good news

by Richard Farmer in Federal opinion polls

First the good news for Labor. The proportion of people who think Labor will win the next election is dropping fast. According to AC Nielsen in the SMH/Age, the figure is down to 55%. That is almost getting low enough to stop any risky protest votes. If things keep going as they have been of late, then the government will soon have the tag of underdog, which is what a sensible political party wants to be when the campaign proper starts.

Then there’s the bad news. On the Nielsen figures, Labor would not only start off behind but have the devilish hard job of picking up a couple of percentage points to scramble across the line. At the very least it seems we are about to have a fair dinkum contest although I must say the picture from the pollsters is a confusing one with Nielsen, Morgan and Newspoll having widely different estimates of the support for Labor and the Greens.
The Nielsen survey was taken between June 3 and 6, Morgan on May 29 and 30 and Newspoll between May 28 and 30.
The Crikey Election Indicator, based on the market’s estimate not of what public opinion is today but what will happen on the actual polling day, still has Labor the clear favourite although the recent poll results have led to the probability of there being a second Rudd government being reduced from 70% last week to 64% at midday today.
1
Jun

Campaigning for second preferences

by Richard Farmer in Federal elections

The forthcoming federal election is clearly going to be one about the two spurned major parties campaigning for second preferences from the Greens and others. And that is very bad news for those Labor candidates in inner city electorates. Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner’s regular vitriolic attacks on the Greens will have to be curbed as the courting begins as his seat is sacrificed to the greater “good” of retaining office. It has all the ring of 1987 over again.

1
Jun

Third party performance

by Richard Farmer in Opinion polls

The split between Greens, Family First, Independents and other minor parties might have jumped around a bit but the opinion polls this year have consistently shown the non-major-parties vote around the 20 per cent mark. This morning Newspoll put the Greens at a record high for them of 16% with the others at 8% to make the total for the non-major-parties 24%. That is equal to the highest figure in the Newspolls back to November 1985 that I have in my records.

That public opinion recently has turned against both Labor and the Coalition Liberal and National parties is no surprise. The leadership of both has shown itself to be untrustworthy. That voters are looking for an honest alternative is what I for one would hope for. That Greens leader Bob Brown’s party might have some views that people disagree with does not stop them being attracted to his straight forward comments. Consistently saying what you think beats shiftiness every time.

Click to enlarge graph