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A warm world for a Paris climate meeting?

April 14th, 2015

The odds are increasing that the United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Paris from 30 November until 11 December will come at the end of another record hot year for the planet. January and February provided the warmest start to a calendar year apart from 2007 and an emerging El Niño is laying the foundation for hot temperatures to continue.

el nino alert (1)

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology today upgraded its ENSO Tracker to El Niño ALERT. This means the likelihood of El Niño developing in 2015 is at least 70%. All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. Earth’s previous hottest years have coincided with an El Niño

el nino predictions

The BOM reports:

All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will reach or exceed El Niño threshold levels by mid-year. All models suggest that SSTs will remain above threshold levels for a sustained period. The average value of NINO3.4 expected by the end of the southern winter is about +1.5 °C; however, it is too early to determine with confidence how strong this potential El Niño could be.

Model outlooks spanning February to May (the traditional ENSO transition period) have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year.

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