Archive for the ‘Queensland election’ Category

A win for the LNP but not for the Queensland Premier?

January 29th, 2015 Comments off

A victory for the LNP but defeat for Campbell Newman are being pointed to by The Owl’s election indicators.




So the talk about Queensland’s election turned to sociopaths

January 27th, 2015 Comments off

Well the stop writs have stopped nothing. Alan Jones was back on air this morning repeating his stories about Campbell Newman the liar and tossing in an intriguing new one about and mining on North Stradbroke Island for good measure.

I particularly enjoyed the chat about sociopaths in politics but I won’t go into detail because I have neither the money nor the courage of an Alan Jones when it comes to such defamatory things.

What a pity that scandal takes such a long time to seep through into public consciousness. The Liberal National Party government remains favourite to win on Saturday.


Categories: Elections, Queensland election Tags:

Labor edges a little closer in Queensland

January 25th, 2015 Comments off

A slight movement in favour of Labor on the Ow’s Queensland election indicator but the Liberal National Party government is still the firm favourite.

qld indicator (3)But perhaps the approach of the Murdoch press suggests there are fears that things really are getting closer.

sunday mail shows the family mancourier mail

When politicians try and switch attention to their spouses you know their own popularity leaves something to be desired.


A mistimed writ by the Queensland Premier?

January 24th, 2015 Comments off

I wrote at the beginning of the week that the Queensland election would be an interesting test of the power of radio talk host Alan Jones and the initial verdict is that he is capable of turning the subject of political debate even if the impact on actual voting is less certain. Without Jones’ intervention with a daily one hour session on Brisbane station 4BC, questions of the influence of big money on government decisions would not have featured in the campaign. The local media have spent three years largely ignoring questions about the Liberal National Party method of governing but Jones has forced them to change that.

Premier Campbell Newman spent this week dodging questions from his once subservient media chooks based on allegations that Alan Jones has aired. It has thrown his planned low-key, summer campaign strategy quite off the rails. That might not matter (see Alan Jones and the Springborg farm made for titillating listening for my guess on the subject) but Premier Newman is clearly worried. How else to explain his recourse late in the week to legal action for alleged defamation?

If this was a classic stop-writ, and it appears to have been, it has not worked as planned. Rather it has given the mainstream Queensland media an opportunity to give the allegations another kick along. Perhaps the LNP strategists are finding from their research that this morning’s Newspoll in The Weekend Australian is reflective of public opinion.


Or perhaps not. Pollster Mark Textor took to Twitter last night to suggest his followers have a look at some ANU research into marginal seat polling. (Read from the third message upwards.)


Textor views on polling deserve to be taken seriously but I do wonder about the likely accuracy of this one:


So far the market has been largely unmoved by campaign developments and opinion polls. The Owl’s election indicator still has the LNP clearly as the probable election winner.


The most striking ad of the Queensland election campaign

January 22nd, 2015 Comments off

It’s back on page 17 of the Courier Mail so it will have little or no influence but I’m giving it my award as the most striking ad of the Queensland election campaign

2015-01-22_dr davis

Something that might have an impact is the tag on Labor Party radio messages – number every square and put the LNP last.

If I was running the Labor Party campaign I would be saying nothing else but that in advertisements.

See The difficulty in calculating a two party vote in Queensland. See also the archive of the Owl’s items on the Queensland election


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The difficulty in calculating a two party vote in Queensland

January 21st, 2015 Comments off

When pollsters calculate their prediction of the two party preferred vote they take the experience of the previous election in distributing the preferences of third party candidates. That’s a sensible enough procedure in normal election circumstances but I suspect that is not what we will see in Queensland on Saturday week. The Clive Palmer and Bob Katter candidates plus some of the prominent independents are promising to do something different this time and direct preferences away from the Liberal National Party. Hence I am uncertain about how much credence to put on the latest predictions of Newspoll and Reachtel. They both have it at 52% LNP to 48% ALP but perhaps it is closer than that.

Tonight’s Reachtel findings as shown on the 7 Network:


Two party preferred

Two party preferred

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Alan Jones and the Springborg farm made for titillating listening

January 20th, 2015 Comments off

Scandalous behaviour by politicians. and more so an accusation of it, takes a long time to seep through into public consciousness so I expect Alan Jones’ words this morning about coal mining and Lawrence Springborg will have no impact on Queensland election day. Nevertheless the story of the coal miners avoiding the Springborg family farm made for titillating listening and there is sure to be more to come – especially if Palmer United Party Senator Glenn Lazarus passes on a few of the tit-bits mentioned in The Australian yesterday:

20-01-2015 lazarus


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A nice test of the power of Alan Jones

January 19th, 2015 Comments off

Radio talk show hosts like Alan Jones have an influence on our political life because politicians think they have an influence on public opinion. I have never seen objective evidence of such impact but politicians are not mugs when it comes to deciding what influences their voters so I don’t completely dismiss the idea. Which is why I am intrigued by the entry of the Sydney based Alan Jones in to the Queensland election campaign.

Now this intervention is no ordinary pre-election rant by a conservative commentator. Alan Jones has moved to Brisbane to broadcast for the duration of the campaign to turn his form of vitriol on to Liberal National Party Premier Campbell Newman. Consider this morning’s offering as summarised  by the ABC:

Jones told radio 4BC the Newman government had an appalling track record.

“Make no bones about it – this is as bad as anything we’ve ever seen in government in Australia anywhere,” he said.

He described Mr Newman as a bully and that he “couldn’t back the Premier to win a chook raffle”.

Jones said Mr Newman lied to him in 2012 when he promised there would be no stage three of the Acland coal mine near Toowoomba, where Jones grew up.

“What’s happened on the Darling Downs under this government is a disgrace,” Jones said.

He’s first best friends with the mining giants who are plundering this state and not improving our bottom line.

“Our debt is worse than it was when Newman came into government – and our agricultural land is being squandered and he’s done nothing about the debt he said he would address.

“This is the bloke who won’t investigate why a dozen people died in the Grantham floods.

“You can’t believe a word this bloke says.”

Jones said no-one in the LNP Government was prepared to listen.

“[Health Minister Lawrence] Springborg has had a million letters about the health concerns by the people at Tara living in a coal seam gas field and those letters are unanswered.”

Not that Alan Jones is going as far as urging a vote for Labor. He points out to his audience that there are plenty of good independents worthy of support and has gone as far as endorsing some of them with campaign material.


 (Picture from Margo Kingston’s Twitter feed – )

It is an intriguing intervention although the latest opinion polls still have the LNP government ahead as does the Owl’s political indicator.

qld indicator (2)

Premier Newman’s two leadership negatives

January 8th, 2015 Comments off

Tony Abbott and his federal government is top of the list of negatives as Campbell Newman sets out on his short-as-possible election campaign. Hoping the Prime Minister goes back to his holiday by the beach and stays there for as long as possible would be one reason for choosing 31 January polling day. For the Queensland Liberal National Party the less said about those federal colleagues the better. So let’s try and pretend we are different so we can quickly move on to other things

2015-01-08_canberra bitter The Courier Mail attempted product differentiation this morning before moving on to the separate aspect of leadership negatives: who actually will LNP voters be supporting as Premier? The fact that Premier Newman’s own seat is far more vulnerable than his government overall creates a diversion that Labor will delight in exploiting.

2015-01-08_ssshgroveOf more concern to the Brisbane daily on its editorial pages was the danger of minor parties having an unhealthy influence. The Courier’s editorial pretended that a hung parliament controlled by a riff-raff was the problem when the real LNP concern is that the Palmers and the Katters will leach away support in a state where preferential voting is optional.

But the Townsville Bulletin most accurately summed up the campaigning day:

Many a true word ...

Many a true word …

And down on the Gold Coast it was a subject the government would be happy about with just a little bit of a backhander about the need to do more rather than less.


 Full Queensland election coverage HERE 

Categories: Elections, Queensland election Tags:

Power walks the favoured photo opportunity?

January 8th, 2015 Comments off
A bit of photo shopping on day one to get things started

A bit of photo shopping on day one to get things started – Courier Mail 7 January

As candidate Kate goes walking too - Courier Mail 7 January

As candidate Kate goes walking too – Courier Mail 7 January

But none of that walking nonsense for Clive - The Australian 7 January

But none of that walking nonsense for Clive – The Australian 7 January

Townsville Bulletin 8 January

Townsville Bulletin 8 January

Premier walking with the kids - The Australian 8 January

Premier walking with the kids – The Australian 8 January

Doing a little jogging for the cameras - The Australian 8 January

Doing a little jogging for the cameras – The Australian 8 January

And now a little canoeing for the action man - The Australian 8 January

And now a little canoeing for the action man – The Australian 8 January

Full Queensland election coverage HERE

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The summer bummer headline sums up day one of Queensland election campaign

January 7th, 2015 Comments off

The sand poll. Nothing close about the Courier Mail’s  first vox pop of the campaign. Holidaymakers on Burleigh Beach went clearly in the LNP’s direction – five supporters to Labor’s two with one undecided.

The Courier Mail’s News Corp stablemate The Gold Coast Bulletin found “Waves of indifference at beach but some are looking for sharks.” It probably summed up the feeling of most Queenslanders with this front page:


Up north in Cairns the local Post daily went on page one with the result of an online question “Which party will win the next state election?” Labor 59%, LNP 41%.

At the Townsville Bulletin they had a State of the North survey of an apparently self selected 632 voters.

townsville state of the northClick to enlarge

This predicted support of 27% for the LNP, 22% for the ALP, 8% Greens, 2% PUP, 7% Kapper United Party with 34% in the undecided column.

Full Queensland election coverage HERE

 Original version – “At the Townsville Bulletin they had a go at proper polling with their State of the North survey of 632 voters.” Correction made on advice of a valued Twitter follower

Categories: Elections, Queensland election Tags:

The Courier Mail’s foretaste of the election coverage to come: Bikies back Labor

January 5th, 2015 Comments off

It was as if they knew the campaigning whistle was about to start. And this morning’s Courier Mail left no doubt about the coverage to come.

5-01-2015 bikies back labor5-01-2015 page1detail

And in case you missed that on page one, a repeat inside.

5-01-2015 incaseyoumisseditBias does not come much more obvious than that.


Categories: Elections, Queensland election Tags: