Archive

Archive for the ‘Indonesian polls’ Category

A victory for Jokowi and the Morgan Poll in Indonesia

July 10th, 2014 Comments off

2014-07-10_jakartaThey have reason to be feeling pleased with themselves at the Morgan Poll headquarters in Melbourne this morning after predicting with some accuracy the result of yesterday’s Indonesian presidential election. The snapshot results findings based on results from a sample of polling booths

The Jakarta Post says the quick counts from “the credible institutions”, based on results from a sample of polling booths, indicate that Jokowi won around 52 percent of the vote, with 48 percent going to Prabowo. The Morgan Poll’s final poll said:

Long-time favourite Jokowi (52%) holds a narrow lead over Prabowo Subianto (48%) according to yesterday’s Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidential Election conducted in June 2014 with 3,117 Indonesian electors.The KPU is expected to announce the official result no later than July 22.

The KPU [General Elections Commission] of Indonesia  is expected to announce the official result no later than July 22.

 

The brave Morgan Poll offers an Indonesian forecast

July 1st, 2014 Comments off

I dip my lid to Morgan Polls for venturing into Indonesia to bring one of the few available guides to the presidential election. It cannot be easy to sample public opinion in such a large and diverse nation. Time will tell about the wisdom of trying.

Today’s Morgan report declares the result too close to call with just a week to go.

Long-time favourite Jokowi (52%) holds a narrow lead over Prabowo Subianto (48%) according to yesterday’s Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidential Election conducted in June 2014 with 3,117 Indonesian electors.

Analysing the final Roy Morgan Indonesian Presidential Poll by location shows Jokowi leads in most areas of Indonesia, although it is only a very narrow lead on Indonesia’s most populous island of Java: Jokowi (52.5%) cf. Prabowo (47.5%).

Jokowi’s biggest lead is on the tourist, and Buddhist, island of Bali: Jokowi (93%) cf. Prabowo (7%). Jokowi also leads clearly in Sulawesi: Jokowi (60.5%) cf. Prabowo (39.5%); Kalimantan: Jokowi (55%) cf. Prabowo (45%); the Maluku Islands: Jokowi (65.5%) cf. Prabowo (34.5%) and in Nusa Tenggara: Jokowi (68%) cf. Prabowo (32%).

Jokowi’s challenger, Prabowo, leads in the westernmost region of Sumatra: Prabowo (60%) cf. Jokowi (40%) and in the easternmost region of Papua: Prabowo (51.5%) cf. Jokowi (48.5%).

Presidential support by Gender

Analysing by Gender shows Jokowi’s narrow lead is based upon his strong appeal to women. Amongst women Jokowi (55%) is clearly favoured to Prabowo (45%). However, men narrowly favour Prabowo (51%) over Jokowi (49%).

Presidential support by Age

Analysing the support for each candidate also shows a clear difference between Jokowi and Prabowo. Jokowi’s appeal is higher amongst older age groups whilst Prabowo has the edge with younger Indonesians.

17-24yr olds: Prabowo (52%) cf. Jokowi (48%);
25-30yr olds: Prabowo (51%) cf. Jokowi (49%);
31-45yr olds: Jokowi (52%) cf. Prabowo (48%);
46+yr olds: Jokowi (56%) cf. Prabowo (44%).