The Owl’s Indicators

May 7th, 2015

The Owl is a believer in the wisdom of crowds being superior to  pundits like himself when it come to predicting future political events. Experience has taught him that markets invariably assess the probabilities better than he does. Hence the Owl Indicators published regularly on this website based on what the markets are telling us.

Current Owl Indicators

UK election indicators – as at 7 May 2015

2015-05-07_mostseats

2015-05-07_overallmajority

2015-05-07_pmafterelection

 

 

Next Australian federal election – as at 4 May 2015

4-05-2015 federalindicator

Liberal leader at next federal election – as at 4 May 2015

4-05-2015 liberalleaderindicator

Previous Owl Indicators

NSW state election – as at 13 February 2015 – Result Coalition victory

nsw indicator

May Australian Interest Rate Indicator – as at 4 May 2015 – Result Minus 0.25

4-05-2015 interestrateindicator

April Australian Interest Rate Indicator – as at 6 April 2015 – Result no change

april interest indicator

March interest rate indicator – as at 3 March 2015 – Result no change

march indicator

As at 22 February 2015 – Birdman elected as Best Picture

best picture indicator

As at 29 January 2015 – Labor government elected

2015-01-29_qld

As at 29 January 2015 Labor wins Ashgrove2015-01-29_ashgrove

Victorian State election – as at 28 November – Labor won

2014-11-28_victorianindicator

Referendum on Scottish independence – “No” vote won

2014-09-17_scotlandindicator

New Zealand election – Nationals won

2014-09-17_nzindicator

Griffith by-election – Labor won

2014-02-07_griffithindicator

Official Australian interest rates  as at 24 February – Decision was no change

2014-02-24_marchinterestindicator

Official Australian interest rates – as at 31 March 2014 – Decision was no change

31-03-2014 aprilinterestindicator

European Parliament Election Indicator – Winner was UKIP

23-05-2014 european

Newark UK by-election – as at 3 June 2014 – Winner was Conservative Party

2014-06-10_newark

Rochester and Strood By-Election Indicator – as at 2 November 2014 – Winner was UKIP that by election eve had shortened to have a 97% chance of winning.

2014-11-02_richester

US Congressional Elections 2014 – as at 2 November 2014 – Republicans won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate

2014-11-02_congress

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