The market still unimpressed

10 February 2010 - We pundits might be getting more critical of the Rudd Government and Newspoll seems to be signalling a slight decline in popularity but the market remains unconvinced that Labor is in any trouble. The Owl's Election Indicator based on the verdict delivered by the prediction markets still gives it around about an 80% chance of being re-elected.

And when we look at the three major national opinion polls combined, they too still have Labor comfortably in front.

Pollster	Date	Labor	Coalition
Owl average		54.2	45.8
Last election	24 November 2007	52.7	47.3
Morgan	January 23-31	56.5	43.5
Newspoll	January 31	52.0	48.0
Nielsen	February 4-6	54.0	46.0

The red head beats the grey

10 February 2010 - Listening to question time is a punishment that goes with my job so I am especially thankful whenever someone asks Julia Gillard a question. The Deputy Prime Minister at least exhibits a wicked sense of humour. The performances of her Prime Ministerial colleague were accurately described in the Sydney Morning Herald this morning by David Marr - " … there is an odd disjunct in Rudd between tone and subject. He is grave so often. The engine is running but there aren't many gears."

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