Sportingbet PM Watch Howard $1.30 (was $1.40) Costello $3.75 ( $3.75) Abbott $31.00 ($26.00) Turnbull $31.00 ( $26.00) Nelson $11.00 ($8.00) Any Others $51. 00 ($26.00) (Odds on PM before next election) |
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Monday, 31 July 2006
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Courage Aplenty from PM Howard Giving up political power would not be an easy decision. After you have run the country, how do you find another job anywhere near as satisfying? The personal interest in leading a fulfilling life must strongly push you in the direction of staying on. So it has proved for John Howard. Forget about all the talk of the best interests of the Liberal Party and doing what the colleagues wanted. That might all be true but it is coincidental. The Prime Minister wants to keep going because he is fit and well and likes what he is doing. A moment or two reflecting on his immediate predecessors would have helped in reaching the decision to stay on. Paul Keating in retirement concerned himself with the exact shade of duck egg blue for the ceiling of his office before pathetically trying to influence the public debate with memories of his greatness. Bob Hawke returned to being a door opener for wealthy businessmen while providing the gossip magazines with pictures aplenty. Malcolm Fraser pulled up his trousers and pretended he was not just the failure who achieved nothing the last time a government had a Senate majority. John Howard looks at Keating, Hawke and Fraser and knows there is nothing better for him to do than what they do so staying on looks the best option. Whether it will seem such a good idea in 18 months time is another question. Prime Ministers who gracefully retire as winners are a rare breed. Most die in office, are defeated in a palace coup or face the indignity of losing an election. Keating and Fraser were in the category of election losers along with Sir William McMahon and Ben Chifley. Hawke joined John Gorton as the victim of a coup. Harold Holt and John Curtin died in office. In the last 60 years only Robert Menzies and Frank Forde went at a time of their own choosing and for Forde that was after eight days. Arthur Fadden was the one off who lost the job via a vote in the House of Representatives. Howard hopes to be a Menzies and eventually retire at a time of his choosing but he must first now win the next election and that will be no easy feat. With this Parliament well past the half way stage, Kim Beazley should be happy enough with how his Party is faring. Labor is comfortably ahead of where it was at the same stage of the last electoral cycle.
On the measurements of Newspoll, Labor is four percentage points in front of the Coalition. The graph above shows it is also doing four points better than in 2003. And this advantage comes after 18 months of basically good economic news for the Howard Government. Now that interest rates seem likely to rise again, Howard will find it hard to eat in to this lead. |
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