(Based on Centrebet prices) |
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Wednesday, 30 August 2006
CONTACT Richard Farmer PO Box 613 Tanunda SA 5352 Phone: 0422 083 285
The website The politicalowl.com website contains a broader range of material than is covered in the daily emails.
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Vegemite, Arnotts and now Fosters? We might no longer drink it in our own country but Fosters remains an Australian icon. The speculation that foreign owned brewers are on the prowl for Foster's Group Limited thus spells political trouble for the Federal Government. The very idea of OUR BEER – VB, Fosters, Carlton Draught and all – being owned by investors from South Africa , the United States and Europe will be met with outrage. If the Labor Party has any political nous at all it will be promising before the day is out to try and prevent any takeover attempt. The speculators who used rumours of an interest in Foster's by Belgian brewer InBev and British-South African-US owned SABMiller to run up the share price by 10 per cent yesterday are taking a considerable risk. In these days of free market orthodoxy, the Treasurer Peter Costello might be a reluctant user of his powers to control foreign investment. Being a serious and responsible fellow Mr Costello prefers to let things take their course. Oppositions, who are not concerned with running the country but of getting into the ministerial wing at Parliament House, need not be concerned with such niceties as what is actually best for the nation. The votes are to be won by promising to keep Foster's, and Coles supermarkets too, for that matter, Australian owned. Labor will surely so promise Peter Costello is smart enough to know the political danger confronting him and he is also a politician now in election mode. The last thing he wants is for allegations of selling off the farm to become an issue. It is time for the political brother to ask his religious brother for help in making him pure - but not now. If the Reverend Tim will not help I'm sure that John Howard will. Limits to the Underdog Effect Back in September 1999 the Victorian Government of Jeff Kennett led Labor in the opinion polls by around 54% to 46% and ended up narrowly losing office when Labor gained the support of independents holding the balance of power. In Queensland the Newspoll this morning has Labor leading the non-Labor parties 58% to 42%. Even if the National and Liberal Parties in Queensland benefit from an “underdog” affect it is difficult to see the swing to them in the last 10 days being big enough to unseat Labor. Incredible as it might have seemed at the start of the year when the Labor Government was reeling from stories about incredible maladministration of the state hospital system, Newspoll today has the Labor vote higher than at this stage before the last election! Even allowing for a similar drift away in support to last time, the Government would be returned with an increased majority. The Owl Election Indicator tells the following story:
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