(Based on Centrebet prices) |
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Thursday, 7 September 2006
CONTACT Richard Farmer PO Box 613 Tanunda SA 5352 Phone: 0422 083 285
The website The politicalowl.com website contains a broader range of material than is covered in the daily emails.
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Telling Lies that May be True Labor began the Queensland election campaign trying to claim the underdog status and they are ending it trying, if not pretending to be behind, to act as if their lead is shrinking in what will prove a close run race. The surprise is not that Labor has revealed such internal polling to the Courier Mail but that the paper has published it all over this morning's front page. Inventing poll results for gullible journalists is part and parcel of running an election campaign and I would be staggered if this latest effort is not in that category especially as the leak is designed to stop potential Labor voters from deserting on the grounds that a Peter Beattie who won by too much would not get the right message. The mantra “this will be much closer than you think” is part and parcel of the underdog strategy of successful campaigning. The strange thing is that the lies being spun about the internal polling might turn out to be true come close of business Saturday. If people do not believe there is any way Beattie and his team can lose their just might be a protest vote which swings things back a little in favour of Nationals and Liberals. We will see soon enough but the lead does appear to be unassailable. In the interesting competition being run on www.glug.com.au in conjunction with Crikey only 4.5% of entrants believe that the Coalition will win. The average prediction is that Labor will win 57 of the 89 seats. Believe the last Newspoll and the Labor total will be higher than that. Tired of Funding Losers One of the interesting side lights to the Queensland campaign is the lack of advertising by the Coalition parties. Labor is dominating the airwaves as much as six to one by some estimates. This is a repeat of what happened in South Australia earlier this year when the Liberal Party did not appear on television screens until the last week of campaigning. The reason in Adelaide then, and presumably in Brisbane now, is that business has grown used to Labor Governments at state level and can see no advantage in funding a change. Combined with the advantage of incumbency which sees all those so-called “government” ads in the months leading up to the start of formal campaigning it makes the job of an opposition extremely difficult.
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