(Based on Centrebet prices) |
|
The daily email The daily email is sent to subscribers free of charge every week day. To join the mailing list click HERE .or email |
||||||||||
Friday, 8 September 2006
CONTACT Richard Farmer PO Box 613 Tanunda SA 5352 Phone: 0422 083 285
The website The politicalowl.com website contains a broader range of material than is covered in the daily emails.
A word from the sponsor! GLUG GLUG GLUG GLUG GLUG GLUG GLUG Little ads mean low prices . INDIVIDUAL VINEYARD WINES
|
The Rupert Poll Says Labor The Rupert Murdoch philosophy on elections is that newspapers should only back winners. This morning The Courier Mail and The Australian both came out with editorials supporting Labor. Perhaps more importantly both papers have given the National and Liberal parties a hard time throughout the campaign. Therefore Rupert's henchmen think Labor will win. Q.E.D. The Opinion Polls Agree The Courier Mail under the headline “Home and Hosed” reported on a Galaxy Poll conducted for it which put Labor's support above that at the last election when it won 63 of the 89 seats. (It subsequently lost three seats at by-elections to give it a current 60 seats.)
You will find full details of the Galaxy poll on the Courier Mail website . Premier Peter Beattie, staying on strategy right to the end, keeps maintaining that things are much closer than that. Closer they might be but a Coalition victory would be one of the great turn ups of all time. My Own Fearless Prediction The campaign by the Coalition partners has clearly been atrocious but it defies logic to me that a Government presiding over a broken public health system would actually increase its vote. Hence my prediction of the results in individual seats assumes a slight swing against Labor. Entrants in the Crikey/ Glug prediction contest being run on the election are of a similar view but predict a slightly greater swing against Labor. There has been an interesting response to the contest, incidentally, with more than 150 people taking the time to put a figure between 0 and 100 in all 89 squares of the simulated ballot paper to indicate their assessment of Labor winning each seat. Add up the individual predictions of the contest entrants and the predicted final result has Labor winning 57 seats. My best guess puts Labor with 59 seats. My original prediction three weeks ago was Labor to win 53 seats. Bookmaker Centrebet, I noted this morning, had 55 seats for Labor as the favoured number. Entries in the Crikey/ Glug contest close at midnight tonight at Election contest on the Glug site with the winner receiving the Crikey title of Australia 's Champion Psephologist and $250 worth of wine to get the bragging started. |
|||||||||||
