23 November 2006

CONTACT

Richard Farmer

PO Box 613

Tanunda SA 5352

Phone: 0422 083 285

richard@politicalowl.com

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Thursday, 23 November 2006

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VINEYARD WINES

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I'm not an old, experienced hand at politics. But I am now seasoned enough to have learned that the hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning.

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1900-1965, American Lawyer, Politician

A Fearless Prediction

I didn't think the day would come when I predicted the Greens would win a single member seat in a general election but I am doing so today. I have the Greens favourite in both the Melbourne and Richmond seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.

The entrants in the Glug-Crikey election tipping contest are not quite so confident about Green success. The consensus gives the Greens a 44% chance in Melbourne and a 33% chance in Richmond .

It also seems I have been a little more impressed with the Liberal Party campaign than most observers. The contest consensus is Labor ending up with 52 seats and I am predicting 48.

To enter the contest click here.

Seat	Contest	RLF	Summary
Albert Park	90.64	99	Labor seat. Needs swing of 12.51% to Liberal/National
Altona	92.11	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 24.70% to Liberal/National
Ballarat East	76.19	81	Labor seat. Needs swing of 7.62% to Liberal/National
Ballarat West	77.17	91	Labor seat. Needs swing of 9.01% to Liberal/National
Bass	27.31	3	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 0.65% to Labor
Bayswater	53.47	23	Labor seat. Needs swing of 2.75% to Liberal/National
Bellarine	75.03	86	Labor seat. Needs swing of 8.26% to Liberal/National
Benalla	21.42	1	National Party seat. Needs swing of 1.98% to Labor
Benambra	17.03	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 4.04% to Labor
Bendigo East	82.25	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 12.97% to Liberal/National
Bendigo West	84.28	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 15.95% to Liberal/National
Bentleigh	83.72	47	Labor seat. Needs swing of 4.75% to Liberal/National
Box Hill	24.69	2	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 1.10% to Labor
Brighton	16.67	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 7.42% to Labor
Broadmeadows	91.47	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 30.79% to Liberal/National
Brunswick	81.86	92	Labor seat. Needs swing of 28.05% to Liberal/National;
			On an ALP vs Green basis the swing required is 9.30% to the Greens
Bulleen	23.69	1	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 2.65% to Labor
Bundoora	86.75	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 17.58% to Liberal/National
Burwood	63.08	51	Labor seat. Needs swing of 5.10% to Liberal/National
Carrum	80.08	99	Labor seat. Needs swing of 12.17% to Liberal/National
Caulfield	17.56	1	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 2.26% to Labor
Clayton	86.42	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 23.85% to Liberal/National
Cranbourne	78.50	97	Labor seat. Needs swing of 10.80% to Liberal/National
Dandenong	89.75	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 20.32% to Liberal/National
Derrimut	90.22	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 27.31% to Liberal/National
Doncaster	25.36	3	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 0.78% to Labor
Eltham	65.53	47	Labor seat. Needs swing of 4.80% to Liberal/National
Essendon	88.67	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 15.93% to Liberal/National
Evelyn	37.14	6	Labor seat. Needs swing of 0.34% to Liberal/National
Ferntree Gully	46.47	18	Labor seat. Needs swing of 2.29% to Liberal/National
Footscray	90.42	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 24.91% to Liberal/National
Forest Hill	63.03	60	Labor seat. Needs swing of 5.79% to Liberal/National
Frankston	74.39	60	Labor seat. Needs swing of 5.78% to Liberal/National
Geelong	78.58	85	Labor seat. Needs swing of 8.11% to Liberal/National
Gembrook	35.81	13	Labor seat. Needs swing of 1.59% to Liberal/National
Gippsland East	14.67	0	Independent seat. Needs swing of 10.19% to Labor
Gippsland South	15.06	0	National Party seat. Needs swing of 10.86% to Labor
Hastings	34.42	8	Labor seat. Needs swing of 0.86% to Liberal/National
Hawthorn	13.00	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 5.89% to Labor
Ivanhoe	74.14	99	Labor seat. Needs swing of 12.50% to Liberal/National
Keilor	88.42	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 18.05% to Liberal/National
Kew	12.69	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 5.99% to Labor
Kilsyth	48.11	17	Labor seat. Needs swing of 2.10% to Liberal/National
Kororoit	86.86	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 27.06% to Liberal/National
Lara	84.94	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 22.35% to Liberal/National
Lowan	12.89	0	National Party seat. Needs swing of 17.09% to Labor
Lyndhurst	85.69	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 25.09% to Liberal/National
Macedon	74.83	92	Labor seat. Needs swing of 9.26% to Liberal/National
Malvern	15.42	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 10.19% to Labor
Melbourne	55.50	15	Labor seat. Needs swing of 22.18% to Liberal/National;
			On an ALP vs Green basis the swing required is 1.93% to the Greens
Melton	89.42	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 15.33% to Liberal/National
Mildura	13.22	0	Independent seat. Needs swing of 6.72% to Labor
Mill Park	87.89	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 26.79% to Liberal/National
Mitcham	68.03	82	Labor seat. Needs swing of 7.69% to Liberal/National
Monbulk	75.61	86	Labor seat. Needs swing of 8.27% to Liberal/National
Mordialloc	71.72	44	Labor seat. Needs swing of 4.54% to Liberal/National
Mornington	24.17	1	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 1.83% to Labor
Morwell	69.78	48	Labor seat. Needs swing of 4.87% to Liberal/National
Mount Waverley	45.08	18	Labor seat. Needs swing of 2.30% to Liberal/National
Mulgrave	83.56	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 16.23% to Liberal/National
Murray Valley	12.39	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 13.90% to Labor
Narracan	71.89	73	Labor seat. Needs swing of 6.83% to Liberal/National
Narre Warren North	78.47	94	Labor seat. Needs swing of 9.71% to Liberal/National
Narre Warren South	81.69	99	Labor seat. Needs swing of 12.61% to Liberal/National
Nepean	24.83	4	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 0.18% to Labor
Niddrie	86.11	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 16.61% to Liberal/National
Northcote	80.47	83	Labor seat. Needs swing of 28.33% to Liberal/National;
			On an ALP vs Green basis the swing required is 7.91% to the Greens
Oakleigh	84.44	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 15.22% to Liberal/National
Pascoe Vale	90.06	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 24.21% to Liberal/National
Polwarth	11.75	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 9.54% to Labor
Prahran	66.53	42	Labor seat. Needs swing of 4.43% to Liberal/National
Preston	89.14	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 25.76% to Liberal/National
Richmond	66.89	26	Labor seat. Needs swing of 25.56% to Liberal/National;
			On an ALP vs Green basis the swing required is 3.10% to Greens
Ripon	70.56	79	Labor seat. Needs swing of 7.44% to Liberal/National
Rodney	16.67	0	National Party seat. Needs swing of 16.43% to Labor
Sandringham	18.33	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 3.04% to Labor
Scoresby	20.28	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 3.33% to Labor
Seymour	76.83	93	Labor seat. Needs swing of 9.50% to Liberal/National
Shepparton	15.97	0	National Party seat. Needs swing of 15.14% to Labor
South Barwon	59.39	50	Labor seat. Needs swing of 5.02% to Liberal/National
South-west Coast	29.92	3	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 0.75% to Labor
Swan Hill	14.36	0	National Party seat. Needs swing of 14.16% to Labor
Tarneit	82.78	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 17.41% to Liberal/National
Thomastown	92.17	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 31.75% to Liberal/National
Warrandyte	21.08	0	Liberal seat. Needs swing of 6.36% to Labor
Williamstown	89.83	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 25.72% to Liberal/National
Yan Yean	80.00	93	Labor seat. Needs swing of 9.54% to Liberal/National
Yuroke	81.83	100	Labor seat. Needs swing of 22.89% to Liberal/National
LABOR SEATS	51.76	48.20