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Thursday, 5 July 2007

Dangerously Stating the Obvious

Energy security is extremely important to all nations throughout the world, and of course, in protecting and securing Australia 's interests. The Middle East itself, not only Iraq , but the entire region, is an important supplier of energy - oil in particular - to the rest of the world. When it comes to Iraq , Australia needs to support its allies, stop Al Qaeda securing a foothold, and secure oil supplies.

Quite unremarkable statements I would have thought; nothing more than statements of the obvious. Yet somehow, Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, by making them this morning, has supposedly had to be rebuked by the Prime Minister for linking Australia 's involvement in Iraq with oil!

I doubt that there is anyone who has thought even a little about the invasion of Iraq who does not believe that if there was no oil in Iraq there would have been no invasion. That John Howard has steadfastly refused to link the two has only been influential in undermining his own credibility. Dr Nelson's comments on the day the Government released its updated review of national security should at least earn him marks for honesty.

The continued linguistic gymnastics of Mr Howard, on the other hand, will further undermine his credibility - yet another example of his trickiness that has sent his opinion poll standings tumbling.

Little Change Expected

Our panel of opinion poll predictors expect little change when Newspoll reports again next week. The consensus of entrants in the competition the Owl runs with Crikey and Glug is that the two party preferred votes will be unchanged at 44% for the Government and 56% for Labor.

1. Primary Vote

 

 

 

Newspoll

Crikey

Predicted

 

15-17 June

Prediction

Change

Liberal

35

35

-

National

4

4

-

Labor

46

47

1

Greens

5

5

-

Others

10

9

-1

2. Two Party Preferred Vote

 

 

 

Newspoll

Crikey

Predicted

 

15-17 June

Prediction

Change

Coalition

44

44

-

Labor

56

56

-

3. Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction with Mr John Howard

 

Newspoll

Crikey

Predicted

 

15-17 June

Prediction

Change

Satisfied

45

46

1

Dissatisfied

45

45

-

Uncommitted

10

9

-1

4. Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction with Mr Kevin Rudd

 

Newspoll

Crikey

Predicted

 

15-17 June

Prediction

Change

Satisfied

62

61

-1

Dissatisfied

22

23

1

Uncommitted

16

16

-

5. Preferred Prime Minister

 

 

 

Newspoll

Crikey

Predicted

 

15-17 June

Prediction

Change

John Howard

40

41

1

Kevin Rudd

46

47

1

Uncommitted

14

12

-2

The Federal election indicator is back to having Labor favourite.

Federal Election Indicator

Date

Coalition

Labor

16-Aug-06

57.0%

43.0%

09-Oct-06

57.0%

43.0%

07-Dec-06

61.0%

39.0%

19-Feb-07

49.5%

50.5%

20-Mar-07

48.5%

51.5%

23-Apr-07

46.6%

53.4%

22-May-07

46.8%

53.2%

1-Jun-07

43.1%

56.9%

23-Jun-07

49.6%

50.4%

27-Jun-07

50.0%

50.0%

2-Jul-07

49.1%

50.9%

5-Jul-07

48.7%

51.3%

Previous Issues

Past daily Owl emails can be found on the website here.

 

 

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© Richard Farmer 2007