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Wednesday, 25 July 2007

Leaving a Sinking Ship

Bewilderment is setting in among the chorus of Prime Ministerial supporters. John Howard's friends are starting to desert him. This morning it was the turn of Melbourne Sun Herald Sun columnist Andrew Bolt to leave the ship.

The abandonment was confirmed in a column of tortured logic . "He must quit as Prime Minister not because he's a failure, but - perversely - because he's a success. He must quit because he's done so well he should be red hot to win the next election. Instead, every poll this year agrees he's stumbling to the mother of all hidings. And yesterday's pictures of him falling over are devastating in their symbolism."

The replacement, according to the Bolt report, should be Treasurer Peter Costello but there was no explanation as to why Liberals should believe the evidence from the polls that Mr Howard will be beaten but ignore evidence from the same pollsters that Mr Costello would fare even worse.

The column is a classic example of how desperate men in politics propose really desperate things. But it is a sign too that the pressure on John Howard to step down will continue.

Howard's Federalist Legacy

With his decision to press ahead with the takeover of water use in the Murray Darling basin, John Howard has confirmed that his lasting legacy will be that as the Prime Minister who substantially strengthened Federal Government power at the expense of State Governments. Mr Howard's reputation as the country's most federalist conservative Prime Minister was well established before yesterday's announcement to ignore Victoria 's refusals to voluntarily hand over the powers his $10 billion scheme needed.

Under Howard Australia has seen the destruction of state industrial relations systems, a growing use of tied grants to dictate policies in education and health, use of the GST to confirm the primacy of Canberra in all state fund raising by abolishing a raft of state taxes, rejection of Northern Territory euthanasia laws and ACT proposals to give rights to same sex couples and a move to directly control aboriginal welfare. During Mr Howard's 11 years in office the move towards making State Governments mere administrative agents has accelerated at a pace Labor's Gough Whitlam would only have dreamed of.

No wonder, in some ways, that the present Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd so often finds himself in policy agreement with his rival. For a century Labor has been the party advocating centralization and, whatever the eight Labor State and Territory Premiers and chief ministers might think about it, Mr Rudd and his Caucus colleagues in Canberra are looking forward to the opportunities created by Mr Howard's successes before the High Court.

Whether the Commonwealth seizing control of the Murray Darling by a combination of constitutional provisions relating to foreign affairs and corporations is ultimately sanctioned by the Court will be determined in the term of the next Government not this one. There will be insufficient time between passage of legislation and election day for an appeal to be heard which suits Mr Howard politically. His motive in making the decision on water was clearly politically motivated to present his Government as capable of taking decisive action at a time of severe drought and increasing public concern about the impact of global warming.

There will be many on the conservative side of politics who actually believe there is a virtue in splitting power between the Commonwealth and the States and who hope that the High Court eventually rebuffs the extension of power Mr Howard is grabbing.