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Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The Owl's Election Indicator : Coalition 33% Labor 67%

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The Real Cup Day Punt

John Howard might not be a racing man but he took a huge punt when he postponed the election until after Melbourne Cup Day. He gambled his Prime Ministership on the Reserve Bank Board not putting up interest rates on the same day that most adult Australians will be having a dollar or two on something running over 3200 metres.

The form experts reckon the PM is on a loser. The consumer price index figures out this morning saw the interest rate futures market price in a 0.25 percentage point as being a virtual certainty.

Bookmakers will not be the only ones on 6 November hoping that the favourite gets beaten!

The Government is already sensitive about interest rates. This advertisement from the last election is already haunting enough.

Factor in another interest rate rise – there have already been five since the last polling day – and John Howard's credibility will be severely damaged.

Pinocchio will be resurrected in the Labor Party's advertisements. Treasurer Peter Costello, who yesterday was trying to threaten banks in to not putting up housing mortgage rates just because it was costing them more to borrow the money that they lend on, will wish he had had the courage to retire to the back bench before the disaster happened.

Favourites we should remember, even very short priced ones like an interest rate rise currently is on the futures market, do get beaten. The Reserve Bank might find other reasons to leave rates where they are.

But even if they do so, damage will be done to the standing of the Coalition. All the writing and talk about the inevitability of another rates rise in the near future will get through to the public over the next month.

It will be a mighty effort if the Coalition can hold on to government from here.

Eating His Broccoli

I hope John Howard is eating his broccoli. All those morning walks without wearing a hat. I know it's only the morning sun but it rises early in these days before daylight saving. Maybe readers of The Age will forward him the article from today's top five on the paper's website that suggests broccoli can prevent the damage from the ultraviolet light that often leads to skin cancer.

Whatever; the broccoli story is the closest the most read list in the very serious Melbourne broadsheet gets to politics this morning. Nude beaches, nude sports and nude clubs for people on naked holidays make far more interesting reading than coverage of an election campaign. Was it a good or a bad thing that Michelle Grattan was nowhere in sight?

The Age website was not alone in having its top five stores a politics free zone. The election campaign did not rate in The West Australian , news.com.au, the Sydney Daily Telegraph , the Melbourne Herald Sun and the Brisbane Courier Mail either.

Perhaps the most intriguing feature of this daily survey of what stories really interest people is how long the left brain versus right brain controversy will continue to dominate on the tabloid sites. Personally I have received more emails on this shadow lady than any other subject with some suggesting that the whole thing is a hoax with others adamant that everything is above board. I think the Murdoch tabloids should be conducting their on site polls on this subject rather than soliciting opinions on whether Gretel Killeen should go from Channel 10 as the Tele is this morning.

And while it is yet to make any paper's top five list, I should note that news.com.au has started regular coverage of the reaction to John Howard's morning walks. After two days confronting a heckler the hatless PM this morning was “feted by dozens of well-wishers on his early morning walk in Adelaide ” and that “dozens of joggers and walkers wished Mr Howard luck during the election campaign and one man even high-fived the prime minister.”

The Owl will keep you posted regularly on this important measure of Prime Ministerial popularity.

Call Me Biased if You Want to but the Coalition Were Winners

I know I'll be of pensionable age before this election is held so you can call me biased if you want to but the Coalition's appeal to grey power put them clearly on top of The Daily Verdict for yesterday. It wasn't just the announcement of the $4 billion benefits hand out to the nation's elderly but the pictures that went with it.

The Coalition campaign team even managed to get some balance in to their pitch by having Treasurer Peter Costello out frolicking with children. They should keep it up because his image will need some touching up if he is to be an effective Leader of the Opposition.

The Opposition's message for the day was positively swamped by the Government's announcement.

It is with some sense of shame in the peer group I am rapidly approaching that I note the somewhat churlish reaction of some of those who claim to speak for us oldies. It seems that no handout will ever be sufficient to satisfy everyone and something more than a “me too” response is clearly wanted from Kevin07.

As I contemplate the promised goodies to soon come my way, I think I will start pushing for the introduction of the American congressional system of elections every two years. Three years is far too long to wait for bribery payments.

The Market Changes

Betting on the election is back to where it was when the election campaign started with the the Owl's Election Indicator showing the Coalition a 33% chance of winning with Labor rated a 67% chance. That was the position before Prime Minister John Howard announced 24 November as the election date. That rose to 43% following the release of the Coalition tax plan but Labor has come back to a firm favouritism following its own future tax proposals, a good performance by Kevin Rudd in the debate and a favourable Newspoll. When people digest the significance of the news about inflation I expect the odds about Labor to shorten considerably.