NEWS AND VIEWS
Friday, January 04, 2008
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The Owl Indicator Pointed the Way
I hope some of my readers copped the Owl's tip back on 26 December and took the $10 the bookmakers were then offering about Senator John McCain becoming the Republican candidate for the US Presidency. After today's Iowa Caucus votes Senator McCain is now the clear favourite among the Republican field and when betting resumes in the morning should be less than $3.
Both the Republican and Democratic Party Caucus votes went pretty much as the Owl's Primary Election Indicator forecast and once again this market based predictor proved a better guide than the final opinion polls.
For the Democrat contest the final Owl Indicator showed Barack Obama as a 64% chance of winning with Hillary Clinton second pick at 21% and John Edwards at 15%. The final figures of the pollsters were:
And the result? Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%; Senator John Edwards : 29.75%; Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%; Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%; Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%; Uncommitted : 0.14%; Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%; Precincts Reporting: 1781 of 1781. (Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
For the Republican contest the final Owl Indicator figures were Gov. Mike Huckabee 64%, Gov. Mitt Romney 28%, Senator McCain 3% and all others 5%. The final figures of the pollsters were:
And the result? Mike Huckabee 34%; Mitt Romney 26%; Fred Thompson 13%; John McCain 13%; Ron Paul 10%; Rudy Giuliani 3%; Duncan Hunter 0%; Tom Tancredo 0%.
Neither John McCain nor Rudy Giulani campaigned in Iowa.